Oscar Index: Everything's 'Dark' And 'Miserables,' Until We Get 'Unchained'

Les Miserables Oscar Prediction

Welcome back to Movieline's Oscar Index, where each week we take the pulse of the awards chatter en route to Hollywood's big day. This week both Tom Hooper's Les Miserables and Kathryn Bigelow's Zero Dark Thirty surged through the ranks after debuting in their first, successful, awards screenings, though Spielberg's Lincoln still reigns supreme — but Peter Jackson's 48fps gamble The Hobbit and Quentin Tarantino's Django Unchained are right around the corner, gunning for the spotlight...

Oscar Index 2013 Best Picture
The Leading 10

1. Lincoln
2. Les Miserables
3. Zero Dark Thirty
4. Argo
5. Silver Linings Playbook
6. Life of Pi
7. Django Unchained
8. Beasts of the Southern Wild
9. The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
10. Anna Karenina

Outsiders: Skyfall, Moonrise Kingdom, Flight, The Dark Knight Rises, The Master

Despite strong guild and critic screening debuts for Les Miserables and Zero Dark Thirty, which absolutely sealed their positions as Best Picture top dogs, Spielberg's Lincoln is still holding onto its momentum and #1 spot in the race in the hearts and minds of pundits. Meanwhile, David O. Russell's Silver Linings Playbook searches for a way to keep up, while Fox Searchlight's Beasts of the Southern Wild is making its surge, trotting out Spirit Award-nominated star (and Best Actress hopeful) Quvenzhané Wallis for awards events this week.

Oscar Index 2013 - Best Director

Best Director
1. Steven Spielberg (Lincoln)
2. Kathryn Bigelow (Zero Dark Thirty)
3. David O. Russell (Silver Linings Playbook)
4. Ben Affleck (Argo)
5. Quentin Tarantino (Django Unchained)

Spielberg still reigns atop the race, but this week's Zero Dark Thirty splash should boost Bigelow above the ranks of Affleck, whose popular Argo treads similar true history ground but doesn't match ZDT's weightiness or relevancy. Russell's staying in the game as well thanks to lingering Silver Linings love, but the Django curiosity factor props Tarantino up even though critics have yet to see it.

Next: Who leads the pack for Best Actor & Actress?

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  • tp says:

    Amy Adams may not be nominated. Her role is a throwaway role, and her performance is forgettable.

  • Emily says:

    I miss Stu Van Airsdale who did these charts for Movieline for the last few years. He was really good at this, making charts and making them amusing. I don't think whoever is doing it now has quite got it. Could you please ask Stu to do this again? And pay him more, he's worth it.

  • AD says:

    Of all the categories, I believe Movieline's Best Actor and Best Supporting Actor picks are the most accurate. Day-Lewis is clearly the frontrunner for Best Actor, and I believe all five of the Best Supporting Actor picks are likely to get nominated (with the possible exception of Javier Bardem, unless the Academy really gets behind Skyfall, which it should). Tommy Lee Jones and Robert De Niro will definitely be duking it out for Supporting Actor come the new year, as both actors were great in their respective roles.

  • Anonymous says:

    Interesting pics, can't argue with most of them, but I think that you may be missing some major players from "Les Miserables", such as Tom Hooper for Director and one other supporting actor/actress nom from either Crowe, Redmayne, or Barks. Also, pretty sure at least Arkin is getting a nom from "Argo".

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