If you've followed Movieline at all today, you'll know we are paying somewhat... close attention to the upcoming Academy Awards. But between the celebrity predictions and microscopic reads of the Oscar tea leaves, some of the staff around Movieline HQ have a few ideas of their own as to who might walk away with a golden guy on Sunday night. And now those ideas are collected in one convenient place for your perusal and/or wagering counsel. Enjoy!
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Were I a betting man, I'd probably stick to the the conclusions of the exhaustively-researched Movieline Oscar Index. More to point: I know in my mind that The King's Speech will probably win most of the awards, but I just don't feel it in my heart! And here in Paris, where Speech has only been out for a few weeks and everyone's obsessed with David Fincher, the cultural climate is still screaming The Social Network! So here it goes: I'm still predicting a "Facebook movie" sweep.
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When I was a little kid, I really, really, really loved the Oscars. For a wee gay movie-obsessed lad growing up in the suburbs of Atlanta, it was the sort of annual event to be anticipated with both excitement and reverence. Every year when we'd get the TV Guide issue with the full-page "Close-Up" box on the Oscars, featuring thumbnail pictures of the ten Best Actor and Actress nominees, my heart would race. Before I was old enough that my parents would let me stay up late and watch the whole thing (this was back when the show began at 9 p.m. on the East Coast), I somehow convinced them to nudge me awake at midnight, tell me who won in the major categories, and then I'd roll over and go back to sleep.
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As if you couldn't tell, it's Oscar Day here at Movieline! Hollywood's biggest night is finally -- mercifully -- upon us, and that means it's time for some last minute predictions. You've already read what our eclectic group of celebrities thinks will happen in the Kodak Theater on Sunday night, now take a look at my picks. They're like those celebrity picks, only less cool. To the fun!
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A couple quick things about some of the riskier but highly confident Oscar predictions you'll find below:
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I guess you've heard by now the Oscars and Independent Spirit Awards are happening this weekend? Yay! is right. But I don't think you've yet been alerted as to the trenchant movie news outlet where you can follow each as they happen. Hint: You're reading it.
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For me, the Oscar nominations are now something incestuously interwoven with Park City, Utah... and not just because I was scrambling from one theater to another at this year's Sundance Film Festival while drafting this. Everyone knows Sundance spawned several of this year's nominees, as it has many times over the years. But it should be remembered that Sundance is -- literally -- not the only game in Hollywood's favorite Rocky Mountain ski town.
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You'll be relieved to find that comedian Guy Branum (of Chelsea Lately, No Strings Attached, and stand-up in your local amphitheater) is as much of an Oscar buff as we are: He has favorite Oscar years, speeches, and flukes. When Movieline asked him to guess the winners for this Sunday's ceremony, he responded with enthusiastic detail and a commitment to the underdog -- a little like Kathy Griffin. Also, he has precious things to say about Helena Bonham Carter.
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Five months flies when you're having fun, and that's precisely what I was doing following the long awards-season trail all the way to this weekend's Oscars ceremony. And I have 20+ weeks of Movieline's Oscar Index to prove it -- now comprehensively compiled in one central location and animated (crudely, but still) for your reflective pleasure.
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Every year, usually around early March, I survey what I've seen since January and begin to worry that we're not headed into a particularly good movie year. But by year's end, when people ask me if it's been a good year for movies, I always say, "Yes, absolutely" -- and mean it. Because no matter how much movie critics like to grouse about the landscape around them (and sometimes it does look pretty dismal), the joyful reality is that there's always something worth looking at.
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Yes, yes. The King's Speech will win, and no matter how hard we try to tell ourselves any other film has a chance in hell, its abiding safeness will triumph Sunday night. But I'd like to think the Academy will spread the love around -- a win for The Social Network here, a Natalie Portman winner's guffaw there, and some gold for Hailee Steinfeld. Hope she brings her blingitude for the big night.
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The Academy is bound and determined to youngify the Oscars this year even if it kills them -- and judging by the looks and sound of it so far, death may indeed be lurking. But one notable phenomenon has come of recruiting James Franco and Anne Hathaway to co-host the show: @JamesFranco, the Twitter habitat of the actor/writer/director/student/Three's Company revivalist/Oscar-nominee. Surely the teeming young culture around Franco's Tweets will help skew the notoriously aged Oscarcast demos down a few years, right? It depends! How many followers does one need before s/he is officially a tastemaker?
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Our sister site Deadline reports that it has obtained a tentative rundown of Sunday's Oscarcast, which Nikki Finke has concluded will be a "snorefest." Maybe, maybe not, but one look at these spoilers upon spoilers will definitely help you develop your bathroom break/beer-run strategy. Alas, it looks like you're still on your own with your In Memoriam montage pool ballot. [Deadline]
If you're a New Yorker who hasn't yet made Oscar-watching plans for Sunday, may I humbly submit for your consideration the Oscar Viewing Party at 92YTribeca, co-presented by Movieline? It is sure to be a big old gold-plated hootenanny, with a complimentary champagne with admission (plus a range of other delightful drink specials), prizes for top prognosticators, swell hosts in Jon Friedman and Sara Benincasa, and a joyful, relaxed atmosphere to take in Hollywood's biggest night. Details are here; be sure to stop by and introduce yourself. See you downtown...
It's time to wrap up Movieline's recently undertaken mission to honor this year's acting and directing nominees with a tribute that will surely outlive any trophy they could ever hope to receive: one of our daily inaugural Awards-Season Trading Cards. Today, let's conclude in true save-the-best-for-last fashion: Give it up for Best Supporting Actress nominee Jacki Weaver!
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