Oscarology has never quite been what anyone would call an exact science. Hype is often too volatile a substance to mix or study accurately, and emotions run far too high among critics, fans and the Academy voters themselves to get a stable read on films' chances during awards season. But the gang at Movieline Labs have developed the most objective* means yet of measuring Oscar hopefuls.
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Fun/sobering fact about pop culture in the 21st century: It's never too early to start thinking about the Oscars. Just yesterday it was revealed that summer darlings Annette Bening and Julianne Moore would both be submitted as Best Actress candidates for their performances in The Kids Are All Right. But which has the best chance of grabbing a nomination next year? Movieline investigates ahead.
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Oscar pundits have been holding down a space for Terrence Malick's long-delayed The Tree of Life for two years, and today brings both good news and bad. On the plus side: The Sean Penn/Brad Pitt drama is finally kinda-sorta dated! Downside: It's coming out next year. Fox Searchlight dropped the bomb today while announcing that the studio has picked up domestic rights to distribute, and considering the packed awards slate Searchlight is fielding this year (which includes Never Let Me Go, Black Swan, 127 Hours, and Conviction), maybe a 2011 berth is best. [Coming Soon]
David Letterman's 1995 stint as host of the Academy Awards may go down in infamy, but during a very winning visit to The View this morning, Letterman revealed that he turned down the chance for a re-do. "You know, they were nice enough to ask me to [host] it again," he told Barbara Walters. "And I just said, 'Come on, are you drinking?'" Letterman was adamant that he would never return to the scene of the crime: "I did it once, I had my shot, I screwed it up, and almost put an end to the Academy Awards...I sucked. What are you gonna do?"
Hey, check it out! Someone found eminent (and eminently elusive) French master Jean-Luc Godard! That only took a week and a freaking half, and there he was in his adopted home of Switzerland the whole time. All anyone had to do was look for his... Hyundai? Oh -- and prepare for the worst.
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"Word is [Natalie Portman]'s giving a pretty swell performance [...] Still, if it is a swell performance and it doesn't win her the Oscar for which she is now the alleged favorite, we'll look back on this day and think, 'How sad--it looked as if she had a shot,' and hope she can pick herself up and get it together to give another Oscar-worthy performance because this one will have gone down as a disappointment and she will be a loooooooooser." Please blog more, David Edelstein! [The Projectionist/NYM]
Congratulations to filmmakers Francis Ford Coppola and Jean-Luc Godard, actor Eli Wallach, and film historian and preservationist Kevin Brownlow on their imminent recognition at this year's Academy Governors Awards. They deserve it, but at least in Godard's case, will the French New Wave pioneer -- who historically sniffs at prizes and couldn't even be bothered to attend his latest film's Cannes premiere -- even show up to accept? Take Movieline's poll after the jump!
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So much for the bake-off! The Oscars used to release a list of seven semi-finalists for the Visual Effects category, eventually trimming the contenders down to a measly three nominees (which squeezed out films like Terminator Salvation, Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen, and 2012 last year), but now that virtually every summer film has become an FX smorgasbord, the Academy has relented and expanded the nominee field to five. Keep your fingers crossed, Hydraulicon! [Coming Soon]
The Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences -- a group so white, old and out-of-touch you'd think you're at a Republican convention -- has decided perhaps more people would watch their dog and pony show if their choices were a little more hip. In an effort to pump fresh plasma into their dusty veins, the AMPAS has inducted a whole slew of new Academy members. Among the rarefied few are Adam Sandler, Christoph Waltz, Tobin Bell of Saw infamy, along with some much needed non-white, non-male voices like Mo'Nique, Zoe Saldana and Gabourey Sidibe. On the other side of the camera, noted-Miley Cyrus despoiler Adam Shankman is on the list, as are Bono and The Edge, and Christian Bale's favorite cinematographer, Shane "f*cking distracting!" Hurlbut. Check out the full 135-person list after the jump.
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By now you've no doubt read the news that newly chosen Oscar producers Bruce Cohen and Don Mischer might be asked to start working on the telecast a little earlier than initially expected. Movieline sister site Deadline reports that the Academy Board of Governors is meeting to decide whether the 83rd Academy Awards should air sometime in January instead of the previously staked out date of Feb. 27, 2011. And while a few weeks might not seem like an earth-shaking decision, you'd be surprised at how many people are not cool with this. As Awards Daily scribe Ryan Adams wrote, "I only wonder what the hell has the Board of Governors squirming so restlessly that they suddenly want to overhaul and bastardize 83 years of tradition?" Um, bad ratings? But is that reason enough to make this change? Ahead, Movieline offers some pros and cons to the whole sordid affair.
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You might recall that 2009 was a super-congested year for visual-effects mavens in Hollywood, where not even conspicuously flashy $200 million budgets were enough for films like Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen and 2012 to get beyond the Oscar-nomination short list. Competition was tougher than ever to see which two films would be those fortunate enough to lose to Avatar. Now, however, the VFX community wants some radical changes made for next year's show.
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If the Olympics-elongated Oscar season seemed interminable this year, we've got some good news for you. AMPAS president Tom Sherak announced today that the 83rd annual Academy Awards will be presented on February 27, 2011. Count on another Best Actress divorce by March! [The Wrap]
Though we don't tend to pry too much into actors' personal lives at Movieline, we couldn't help but notice a striking trend in the wake of Kate Winslet's divorce from Sam Mendes and the recent infidelity rumors that have rocked Sandra Bullock's marriage to Jesse James. Namely, why have so many Best Actress winners from the last decade seen their relationships implode shortly after?
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After an extraordinary awards season when Kathryn Bigelow could do no wrong, she ran into a little bit more trouble during a brief stint this week at L.A. Superior Court. There, the first woman to win an Oscar for Best Director could not break through the jury pool for a drunk-driving case.
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We all have an idea of what an "Oscar-winning film" is supposed to look like, but after last Sunday's awards show, it may be time to throw the old paradigm out the window. The Hurt Locker is only the latest Best Picture winner to flout the conventions of what kind of film takes home the top prize; in fact, it closed out a decade that was full of such wins. Here are six Best Picture winners of recent vintage that prove there's no such thing as a typical Oscar movie anymore:
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