Introducing Movieline's 2011 Oscar Index: Your Weekly, Fool-Proof Awards-Race Breakdown
The Leading 5:
1. Octavia Spencer, The Help
2. Vanessa Redgrave, Coriolanus
3. Shailene Woodley, The Descendants
4. Jessica Chastain, The Help
5. Melissa McCarthy, Bridesmaids
Outsiders: Jessica Chastain, Take Shelter; Mia Wasikowska, Albert Nobbs; Keira Knightley, A Dangerous Method; Sandra Bullock, Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
As mentioned earlier, this category is weak. Which isn't to say that it doesn't have some good performances lobbying for inclusion: Spencer and Redgrave both have advantages in that they A) have good movies that should and will win at least something and B) there's no one else showing any signs of challenging them. Even Chastain, who, in some parallel awards universe, could theoretically occupy every slot in this category with her spectrum of great roles this year, will perennially be looking up at her co-star. Most Oscar-watchers seem to agree that Woodley, while semi-revelatory and perfectly nom-mable, is a middle-of-the=pack contender all the way.
Which leaves the fifth spot, which is like, [HUGE SHRUG]. Tom O'Neil has a smart outlook about this slot, invoking Melissa McCarthy's Bridesmaids stint as possibly having influenced this week's Emmy win for Best Actress in a Comedy. Could it work in reverse -- could an Emmy beget newfound attention to Team Bridesmaids, which itself scored one of the biggest successes of the year and might have some late-year goodwill coming its way? Again, [HUGE SHRUG]. Its early. Though, category fraud or not, put Keira Knightley here and she can go down to the wire with Spencer and Redgrave. Just saying!
The Leading 5:
1. Christopher Plummer, Beginners
2. Albert Brooks, Drive
3. Kenneth Branagh, My Week With Marilyn
4. Nick Nolte, Warrior
5. Jonah Hill, Moneyball
Outsiders: Philip Seymour Hoffman, Moneyball; John C. Reilly, Carnage; Armie Hammer, J. Edgar; Jim Broadbent, The Iron Lady; Viggo Mortensen, A Dangerous Method
I love Hill and Hoffman in Moneyball, and Nolte is superb in Warrior_ (and _especially in the interviews promoting it). Albert Brooks memorably impresses with his bad-guy turn in Drive. Branagh's a question mark but should be typically grand playing Laurence Olivier in My Week With Marilyn. But ask around, and there is but one likeliest ultimate outcome to it all: At age 82, the illustrious Christopher Plummer will finally win his first Oscar. But probably not for his exquisite performance in Barrymore, which would force him into that congested Lead Actor category. Rather, watch him roll for playing a father who flees the closet late in life in Beginners. This is your Christian Bale, this is your Heath Ledger. Engrave the bad boy and let's get to the races.
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Comments
I find your lack of Piranha 3DD expectations disturbing.
In all seriousness, I heartily welcome back your coverage, as it find it to be the least manic and more thought out of all the oscar coverage that's out there. (Plus you usually help me get the most correct in the pool on awards day!)
2 quick points to make: while I like the concept of the new 5 to 10 rule, I feel that takes away from the "Inception" slot, which I was still carrying a torch for Super 8 to take. But I'm guessing despite the great reviews, that's not gonna happen.
Also, is there any way we can drum up more support for Win Win? Because that flick was top notch all around, and I'd love some McCarthey love from the academy. (Or at least that albino lookin kid).
Thanks, Winchester. I was always thinking _Super 8_ would be the Inception Exception, but then... yeah. And _Win Win_ is also gonna slip thru the cracks, I'm afraid. Oscar Index is just temperature in the end, and good as the film is, that one's ice cold awards-wise. I'd love to be wrong!
Easy there. Regardless of sarcasm, that was kind of unnecessary. I agree with most of your predictions anyway.
I know she's totally a long, long, longshot, but I'd love to see Kirsten Dunst get some buzz for Melancholia. It's a bleak role and she doesn't have as much to do in the second half of the film, but it still made me look at her entirely differently as an actress.
God that'd be awesome. That movie keeps creeping up among my favorites this year; I would very much love to see the same result. Maybe critics awards can get her in the mix? I think that's the only shot she has...
If War Horse is a serious contender I'll cover myself in my own vomit and commit suicide. A bit extreme? Perhaps, but the thought of another hyper-sentimental flick courtesy of Steven Spielberg, instead of Eastwood for a change, with an equally cringe inducing score from our friend John Williams is a bit much to bear. But it is lovely to see Spielberg step out of his comfort zone and make a war film for a change.
On another note, I'm disgusted that Drive seems to be getting zero Oscar buzz, despite being the best film of the year so far. But then that would be consistent with the Academy's annually overlooked master works. Last year Animal Kingdom, this year Drive. I honestly don't know why I pay any attention any more. Whenever you talk about the Academy Awards its important to remember 1 fact, Oliver won Best Picture in 1968. You know what else came out that year? 2001: A Space Odyssey. In the wise words of Charlie Sheen "Sizzle, loosing, bye."
A few things:
1. It saddens me tat Alan Rickman is not a contender for the supporting actor race, despite his moving performance
2. No Ralph Fiennes for Actor/Director of Coriolanus?
3. John C. Reily is the most likely to get the oscar for Carnage, not necessarily because of his performance (although I am sure he is great), but because he is the only one who hasn't won an oscar, and he may be "due" for one. See: Julia Roberts (Erin Brokovich), Al Pacino (Scent of a Woman), etc.
Otherwise, I feeli like some extremely worthy candidates are beign snubbed, such as Blake Lively's exquisite performance in the cinematic juggernaut "The Green Lantern", or Zach Snyder's divine direction/screenwriting of the fantasy stipper opus "Sucker Punch.
I see that you left out THE FIRST GRADER which was an Amazing film that came in second place to The King’s Speech at last year’s Toronto Film Festival. The male actor, Oliver Litondo was absolutely brilliant in it. Wish more people knew about it because it really was moving and inspirational. Even Whoopi loved it… check out what she had to say about it on The View: http://youtu.be/pXXGW-kDTO8
Youtube Trailer: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U-eBT7vnTLE
Is Octavia Spencer spelled with a c or an s. Because you have it listed differently in the tags?
I loved your article.Much thanks again. Awesome.
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