Oscar Index: And the Nominees Are...*
The Leading 5:
1. Natalie Portman, Black Swan
2. Annette Bening, The Kids Are All Right
3. Jennifer Lawrence, Winter's Bone
4. Michelle Williams, Blue Valentine
5. Nicole Kidman, Rabbit Hole
Outsiders: Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit; Lesley Manville, Another Year; Julianne Moore, The Kids Are All Right; Hilary Swank, Conviction; Tilda Swinton, I Am Love
Notes: In all reality, unless Team Bening plans to shove Rex Reed's tired, specious Norbit argument down Academy throats in the weeks ahead, this will be the last week anyone will have anything remotely interesting to say about this category. After all, even as Portman remains a prohibitive favorite, check out the ever-ascendant Hailee Steinfeld -- rising out of the Best Supporting Actress pack into Lead despite Scott Rudin's entreaties. That's where BAFTA wanted her, that's where Karger and other experts foresee her, and honestly, she's got more momentum in this category at the moment than anyone not named Natalie Portman.
The only thing is: Who would she bump off? I'd say Williams is in by virtue of her campaign presence and Weinstein's wiles; having the experience of Kate Winslet landing in Lead Actress two years ago with The Reader, he might have even anticipated this and compensated accordingly. Team Kidman? Not so much. Where the hell has Kidman been, anyway? Oh. A baby. Right. I have a hunch they'll have plenty of time together in the next month.
The Leading 5:
1. Colin Firth, The King's Speech
2. Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network
3. Mark Wahlberg, The Fighter
4. Ryan Gosling, Blue Valentine
5. James Franco, 127 Hours
Outsiders: Jeff Bridges, True Grit; Javier Bardem, Biutiful; Paul Giamatti, Barney's Version; Robert Duvall, Get Low
Notes: Here's another one with a surefire winner at the front and some roiling uncertainly below. I'd say if the actors branch goes with Williams, then they're going with Gosling; it takes two to tango, right? Or rather, it takes one to spastically flail and bellow and overact, and it takes another one to magnanimously withstand that crap. That's two, I guess. In other fateful pairings, combine 127 Hours' slide from prominence with Franco's high-stakes Oscar-hosting duties, and he's easily surmountable by any of the Academy-beloved bubble-dwellers like Bridges, Giamatti or Duvall. I'm leaving Bardem in the mix out of little more than faith in the kudos gods to deliver a Tuesday-morning miracle, but... yeah. I'm not sure they're listening.
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Comments
I've enjoyed reading this in the lead-up to nominations and I'm with you on a lot of my final predictions for nominations too.
I really hope to Javier Bardem nominated...how cool would it be to see Kim Hye-ja nominated for Mother as well. I really hope Winter's Bone gets into the Best Picture race over The Town - which really doesn't deserve it. But that's just my opinions - Here are my predictions.
Best Picture:
127 Hours
Black Swan
The Fighter
Inception
The Kids Are All Right
The King’s Speech
The Social Network
The Town
Toy Story 3
True Grit
Alternate: Winter's Bone
Best Director
Darren Aronofsky (Black Swan)
David Fincher (The Social Network)
Tom Hooper (The King’s Speech)
Christopher Nolan (Inception)
David O. Russell (The Fighter)
Alternate: Joel & Ethan Coen (True Grit)
Best Original Screenplay
Lisa Cholodenko/Stuart Blumberg (The Kids Are All Right)
Andres Heinz/Mark Heyman/John J McLaughlin (Black Swan)
Christopher Nolan (Inception)
David Siedler (The King’s Speech)
Scott Silver/Paul Tamasay/Eric Johnson (The Fighter)
Alternate: Mike Leigh (Another Year)
Best Adapted Screenplay
Michael Arndt (Toy Story 3)
Danny Boyle/Simon Beaufoy (127 Hours)
Joel Coen/Ethan Coen (True Grit)
Debra Granik/Anne Rosellini (Winter’s Bone)
Aaron Sorkin (The Social Network)
Alternate: Ben Affleck (The Town)
Best Actor
Jeff Bridges (True Grit)
Robert Duvall (Get Low)
Jessie Eisenberg (The Social Network)
Colin Firth (The King’s Speech)
James Franco (127 Hours)
Alternate: Ryan Gosling (Blue Valentine)
Best Supporting Actor
Christian Bale (The Fighter)
Andrew Garfield (The Social Network)
Jeremy Renner (The Town)
Mark Ruffalo (The Kids Are All Right)
Geoffrey Rush (The King’s Speech)
Alternate: John Hawkes (Winter’s Bone)
Best Actress
Annette Bening (The Kids Are All Right)
Nicole Kidman (Rabbit Hole)
Jennifer Lawrence (Winter’s Bone)
Natalie Portman (Black Swan)
Michelle Williams (Blue Valentine)
Alternate: Hailee Steinfeld (True Grit)
Best Supporting Actress
Amy Adams (The Fighter)
Helena Bonham Carter (The King’s Speech)
Melissa Leo (The Fighter)
Hailee Steinfield (True Grit)
Jackie Weaver (Animal Kingdom)
Alternate: Mila Kunis (Black Swan)
Best Editing
Tariq Anwar (The King's Speech)
Kirk Baxter/Angus Wall (The Social Network)
Pamela Martin (The Fighter)
Lee Smith (Inception)
Andrew Weisblum (Black Swan)
Alternate: True Grit
Best Cinematography
Danny Cohen (The King's Speech)
Jeff Cronenweth (The Social Network)
Roger Deakins (True Grit)
Matthew Libatique (Black Swan)
Wally Pfitser (Inception)
Alternate: Anthony Dod Mantle (127 Hours)
Visual Effects
Alice in Wonderland
Harry Potter 7: Part 1
Inception
Iron Man 2
TRON: Legacy
Alternate: Hereafter
Original Score
Alexandre Desplat (The King's Speech)
John Powell (How to Train Your Dragon)
A.R. Rahman (127 Hours)
Trent Reznor/Atticus Ross (The Social Network)
Hans Zimmer (Inception)
Alternate: Danny Elfman (Alice in Wonderland)
Makeup
Alice in Wonderland
Barney's Version
The Wolfman
Alternate: The Way Back
Art Direction
Stefan Dechant (Alice in Wonderland)
Therese DePrez/Tora Peterson (Black Swan)
Guy Hendriz Dyas (Inception)
Jess Gonchor/Nancy Heigh (True Grit)
Eve Stuart/Judy Farr (The King's Speech)
Alternate: Dante Ferretti (Shutter Island)
Costume Design
Alice in Wonderland
Black Swan
Burlesque
The King’s Speech
True Girt
Alternate: The Tempest
Best Sound Mixing
127 Hours
Black Swan
Inception
The Social Network
True Grit
Alternate: Shutter Island
Best Sound Editing
127 Hours
Black Swan
Inception
Toy Story 3
True Grit
Alternate: The Social Network
Best Original Song
"If I Rise" - 127 Hours
"You Haven't Seen the Last of Me" - Burlesque
"I See the Light" - Tangled
"We Belong Together" - Toy Story 3
"Shine" - Waiting for Superman
Alternate: "Bound to You" - Burlesque
Animated Feature
How to Train Your Dragon
The Illusionist
Toy Story 3
Alternate: Tangled
Documentary Feature
Exit Through the Gift Shop
Inside Job
Restrepo
The Tillman Story
Waiting for Superman
Alternate: Client 9: The Fall of Elliot Spitzer
Foreign Language Feature
Biutiful (Mexico)
Dogtooth (Greece)
In a Better World (Denmark)
Incendies (Canada)
Life Above All (South Africa)
Alternate: Simple Simon (Sweden)