Oscar Index: And the Nominees Are...*

  • Er, make that "will be..." Maybe. Movieline's Center for the Advanced Study of Kudos Forensics has been working overtime to break down the last week of contention for Academy Award nominations, finding the most intense activity among actors on bubbles. The researchers' findings follow; report your own in the comments...

[Click the graphs for larger images]


The Leading 10:

1. The Social Network

2. The King's Speech

3. The Fighter

4. Inception

5. Black Swan

6. True Grit

7. The Kids Are All Right

8. Toy Story 3

9. The Town

10. 127 Hours

Outsiders: Blue Valentine; Winter's Bone; Rabbit Hole; Shutter Island

Notes: So with maybe one exception -- Blue Valentine sneaking in to overtake 127 Hours -- this is how your Best Picture Class of '11 appears to be shaping up. Screw the Golden Globe/Critics Choice Awards pseudo-bellwethers and the more category-specific implications of the BAFTA nominations: The top half of these nominees are virtually guaranteed thanks to the historically precise recognition of the American Cinema Editors Eddie nominations, and as Sasha Stone notes, The Social Network is on a literally unprecedented tear at the front of the pack:

I have measured these important groups of early voting bodies: National Board of Review, Los Angeles Film Critics, New York Film Critics, National Society of Film Critics, Southeastern Film Critics, Critics Choice, Golden Globe - I am not even counting Chicago, Dallas Fort Worth, Boston, Florida and other groups that have been around a while. What I discovered is this: only one film has won them all: The Social Network. [...] The only Best Picture winner to win with virtually no awards for Best Picture prior to the Oscars would be Crash.

Now would be the time for those few remaining King's Speech loyalists to get to work, right? Wrong: While Dave Karger still has Speech as his favorite into the nominations, even he acknowledges the film's precipitous fade: "My No. 1 Best Picture pick is hanging by a thread." Other pundits, meanwhile, marveled at both the finesse (Scott Rudin and Aaron Sorkin softening Mark Zuckerberg's "unlikable" image during their Golden Globes speeches) and brute force (Sony has reportedly spent an also-unprecedented $5 million to date on TSN's Oscar campaign) of the Social Network juggernaut. Even Harvey Weinstein seemed resigned, maybe even adaptive to the changing Oscar tide, telling the NYT: "[A]s we're learning from the Academy, Hurt Locker is suited for Academy taste. Inglorious Basterds - you would never 10 years ago say, that's going to get eight Academy nominations. So I think today that stereotype of the classic movie is gone." There's always the chance Harvey's just urging the Academy to prove him wrong, but judging by the staggering TSN showing, I'll take him at face value for now.


The Leading 5:

1. David Fincher, The Social Network

2. Christopher Nolan, Inception

3. Tom Hooper, The King's Speech

4. David O. Russell, The Fighter

5. Darren Aronofsky, Black Swan

Outsiders: Joel and Ethan Coen, True Grit; Lisa Cholodenko, The Kids Are All Right; Danny Boyle, 127 Hours; Mike Leigh, Another Year

Notes: OK, now here is where I would (and, er, did) probably point out a related clue from the BAFTA nominations: The Coens are probably screwed. We all pretty much knew this after the DGA nominations were announced, but tack on the voter overlap between US and UK Academies and... well, yeah. And again, True Grit didn't make the cut (ha!) with the ACE voters, either -- and these guys are their own editors. Tough luck, fellas; at least Scott Feinberg's got your back.

Oh, and a bonus: How classic is David Fincher, casually praising Black Swan last week between bites of french fries and arguments that "more money should be spent on movies, and less on marketing." And then there was this, from the same event: "I have a fueled Citation on the runway at Teterboro. As soon as the first snowflake hits me in the eye, I'm leaving. I have a big day tomorrow." Dude, you have a big day for next month and a freaking half. Keep that Citation fueled.

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  • Morgan says:

    I've enjoyed reading this in the lead-up to nominations and I'm with you on a lot of my final predictions for nominations too.
    I really hope to Javier Bardem nominated...how cool would it be to see Kim Hye-ja nominated for Mother as well. I really hope Winter's Bone gets into the Best Picture race over The Town - which really doesn't deserve it. But that's just my opinions - Here are my predictions.
    Best Picture:
    127 Hours
    Black Swan
    The Fighter
    The Kids Are All Right
    The King’s Speech
    The Social Network
    The Town
    Toy Story 3
    True Grit
    Alternate: Winter's Bone
    Best Director
    Darren Aronofsky (Black Swan)
    David Fincher (The Social Network)
    Tom Hooper (The King’s Speech)
    Christopher Nolan (Inception)
    David O. Russell (The Fighter)
    Alternate: Joel & Ethan Coen (True Grit)
    Best Original Screenplay
    Lisa Cholodenko/Stuart Blumberg (The Kids Are All Right)
    Andres Heinz/Mark Heyman/John J McLaughlin (Black Swan)
    Christopher Nolan (Inception)
    David Siedler (The King’s Speech)
    Scott Silver/Paul Tamasay/Eric Johnson (The Fighter)
    Alternate: Mike Leigh (Another Year)
    Best Adapted Screenplay
    Michael Arndt (Toy Story 3)
    Danny Boyle/Simon Beaufoy (127 Hours)
    Joel Coen/Ethan Coen (True Grit)
    Debra Granik/Anne Rosellini (Winter’s Bone)
    Aaron Sorkin (The Social Network)
    Alternate: Ben Affleck (The Town)
    Best Actor
    Jeff Bridges (True Grit)
    Robert Duvall (Get Low)
    Jessie Eisenberg (The Social Network)
    Colin Firth (The King’s Speech)
    James Franco (127 Hours)
    Alternate: Ryan Gosling (Blue Valentine)
    Best Supporting Actor
    Christian Bale (The Fighter)
    Andrew Garfield (The Social Network)
    Jeremy Renner (The Town)
    Mark Ruffalo (The Kids Are All Right)
    Geoffrey Rush (The King’s Speech)
    Alternate: John Hawkes (Winter’s Bone)
    Best Actress
    Annette Bening (The Kids Are All Right)
    Nicole Kidman (Rabbit Hole)
    Jennifer Lawrence (Winter’s Bone)
    Natalie Portman (Black Swan)
    Michelle Williams (Blue Valentine)
    Alternate: Hailee Steinfeld (True Grit)
    Best Supporting Actress
    Amy Adams (The Fighter)
    Helena Bonham Carter (The King’s Speech)
    Melissa Leo (The Fighter)
    Hailee Steinfield (True Grit)
    Jackie Weaver (Animal Kingdom)
    Alternate: Mila Kunis (Black Swan)
    Best Editing
    Tariq Anwar (The King's Speech)
    Kirk Baxter/Angus Wall (The Social Network)
    Pamela Martin (The Fighter)
    Lee Smith (Inception)
    Andrew Weisblum (Black Swan)
    Alternate: True Grit
    Best Cinematography
    Danny Cohen (The King's Speech)
    Jeff Cronenweth (The Social Network)
    Roger Deakins (True Grit)
    Matthew Libatique (Black Swan)
    Wally Pfitser (Inception)
    Alternate: Anthony Dod Mantle (127 Hours)
    Visual Effects
    Alice in Wonderland
    Harry Potter 7: Part 1
    Iron Man 2
    TRON: Legacy
    Alternate: Hereafter
    Original Score
    Alexandre Desplat (The King's Speech)
    John Powell (How to Train Your Dragon)
    A.R. Rahman (127 Hours)
    Trent Reznor/Atticus Ross (The Social Network)
    Hans Zimmer (Inception)
    Alternate: Danny Elfman (Alice in Wonderland)
    Alice in Wonderland
    Barney's Version
    The Wolfman
    Alternate: The Way Back
    Art Direction
    Stefan Dechant (Alice in Wonderland)
    Therese DePrez/Tora Peterson (Black Swan)
    Guy Hendriz Dyas (Inception)
    Jess Gonchor/Nancy Heigh (True Grit)
    Eve Stuart/Judy Farr (The King's Speech)
    Alternate: Dante Ferretti (Shutter Island)
    Costume Design
    Alice in Wonderland
    Black Swan
    The King’s Speech
    True Girt
    Alternate: The Tempest
    Best Sound Mixing
    127 Hours
    Black Swan
    The Social Network
    True Grit
    Alternate: Shutter Island
    Best Sound Editing
    127 Hours
    Black Swan
    Toy Story 3
    True Grit
    Alternate: The Social Network
    Best Original Song
    "If I Rise" - 127 Hours
    "You Haven't Seen the Last of Me" - Burlesque
    "I See the Light" - Tangled
    "We Belong Together" - Toy Story 3
    "Shine" - Waiting for Superman
    Alternate: "Bound to You" - Burlesque
    Animated Feature
    How to Train Your Dragon
    The Illusionist
    Toy Story 3
    Alternate: Tangled
    Documentary Feature
    Exit Through the Gift Shop
    Inside Job
    The Tillman Story
    Waiting for Superman
    Alternate: Client 9: The Fall of Elliot Spitzer
    Foreign Language Feature
    Biutiful (Mexico)
    Dogtooth (Greece)
    In a Better World (Denmark)
    Incendies (Canada)
    Life Above All (South Africa)
    Alternate: Simple Simon (Sweden)

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