Oscar Index: And the Nominees Are...*
The Leading 5:
1. Melissa Leo, The Fighter
2. Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit
3. Amy Adams, The Fighter
4. Helena Bonham Carter, The King's Speech
5. Jacki Weaver, Animal Kingdom
Outsiders: Mila Kunis, Black Swan; Barbara Hershey, Black Swan; Dianne Wiest, Rabbit Hole; Sissy Spacek, Get Low
Notes: Team Jacki update: Come on, Academy! Don't you want another month of fun videos and disclosures like this one from the campaign trail? Hasn't Melissa Leo's previously documented stroppiness and circus-peanut complexion at the Globes (not to mention omission from BAFTA consideration) proven enough of a compulsion to defy expectations? I mean, nominate Leo, I guess, but come on!
Anyway, the last spot in Supporting Actress probably comes down to Jacki Weaver, Mila Kunis or Barbara Hershey. There's a real chance that pro-Black Swan voters will split the latter actresses' votes, pushing Jacki through the middle and into contention. There's an equally real chance that Steinfeld will be plucked into Lead Actress, leaving Jacki and one of the Swannettes to take the fourth and fifth spots. Maybe that would be best for everyone? All I know for sure is that the Fighter contingent is shaping up to be the craziest, most mercurial Oscar-nominee posse since Brando, Caan, Pacino and Duvall drew consideration for The Godfather. They'll be fun to watch, or at least they will be until Leo or O. Russell or Bale hungrily devour an usher at the nominee luncheon.
The Leading 5:
1. Christian Bale, The Fighter
2. Geoffrey Rush, The King's Speech
3. Andrew Garfield, The Social Network
4. Jeremy Renner, The Town
5. Mark Ruffalo, The Kids Are All Right
Outsiders: Michael Douglas, Wall Street: Money Never Sleeps; John Hawkes, Winter's Bone; Armie Hammer, The Social Network; Ed Harris, The Way Back
Notes: Does Douglas's improving heath and resurgent profile mean anything at all, nomination-wise? Doubtful, but Academy voters will be Academy voters, so don't rule anything out. Except winning, that is.
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Comments
I've enjoyed reading this in the lead-up to nominations and I'm with you on a lot of my final predictions for nominations too.
I really hope to Javier Bardem nominated...how cool would it be to see Kim Hye-ja nominated for Mother as well. I really hope Winter's Bone gets into the Best Picture race over The Town - which really doesn't deserve it. But that's just my opinions - Here are my predictions.
Best Picture:
127 Hours
Black Swan
The Fighter
Inception
The Kids Are All Right
The King’s Speech
The Social Network
The Town
Toy Story 3
True Grit
Alternate: Winter's Bone
Best Director
Darren Aronofsky (Black Swan)
David Fincher (The Social Network)
Tom Hooper (The King’s Speech)
Christopher Nolan (Inception)
David O. Russell (The Fighter)
Alternate: Joel & Ethan Coen (True Grit)
Best Original Screenplay
Lisa Cholodenko/Stuart Blumberg (The Kids Are All Right)
Andres Heinz/Mark Heyman/John J McLaughlin (Black Swan)
Christopher Nolan (Inception)
David Siedler (The King’s Speech)
Scott Silver/Paul Tamasay/Eric Johnson (The Fighter)
Alternate: Mike Leigh (Another Year)
Best Adapted Screenplay
Michael Arndt (Toy Story 3)
Danny Boyle/Simon Beaufoy (127 Hours)
Joel Coen/Ethan Coen (True Grit)
Debra Granik/Anne Rosellini (Winter’s Bone)
Aaron Sorkin (The Social Network)
Alternate: Ben Affleck (The Town)
Best Actor
Jeff Bridges (True Grit)
Robert Duvall (Get Low)
Jessie Eisenberg (The Social Network)
Colin Firth (The King’s Speech)
James Franco (127 Hours)
Alternate: Ryan Gosling (Blue Valentine)
Best Supporting Actor
Christian Bale (The Fighter)
Andrew Garfield (The Social Network)
Jeremy Renner (The Town)
Mark Ruffalo (The Kids Are All Right)
Geoffrey Rush (The King’s Speech)
Alternate: John Hawkes (Winter’s Bone)
Best Actress
Annette Bening (The Kids Are All Right)
Nicole Kidman (Rabbit Hole)
Jennifer Lawrence (Winter’s Bone)
Natalie Portman (Black Swan)
Michelle Williams (Blue Valentine)
Alternate: Hailee Steinfeld (True Grit)
Best Supporting Actress
Amy Adams (The Fighter)
Helena Bonham Carter (The King’s Speech)
Melissa Leo (The Fighter)
Hailee Steinfield (True Grit)
Jackie Weaver (Animal Kingdom)
Alternate: Mila Kunis (Black Swan)
Best Editing
Tariq Anwar (The King's Speech)
Kirk Baxter/Angus Wall (The Social Network)
Pamela Martin (The Fighter)
Lee Smith (Inception)
Andrew Weisblum (Black Swan)
Alternate: True Grit
Best Cinematography
Danny Cohen (The King's Speech)
Jeff Cronenweth (The Social Network)
Roger Deakins (True Grit)
Matthew Libatique (Black Swan)
Wally Pfitser (Inception)
Alternate: Anthony Dod Mantle (127 Hours)
Visual Effects
Alice in Wonderland
Harry Potter 7: Part 1
Inception
Iron Man 2
TRON: Legacy
Alternate: Hereafter
Original Score
Alexandre Desplat (The King's Speech)
John Powell (How to Train Your Dragon)
A.R. Rahman (127 Hours)
Trent Reznor/Atticus Ross (The Social Network)
Hans Zimmer (Inception)
Alternate: Danny Elfman (Alice in Wonderland)
Makeup
Alice in Wonderland
Barney's Version
The Wolfman
Alternate: The Way Back
Art Direction
Stefan Dechant (Alice in Wonderland)
Therese DePrez/Tora Peterson (Black Swan)
Guy Hendriz Dyas (Inception)
Jess Gonchor/Nancy Heigh (True Grit)
Eve Stuart/Judy Farr (The King's Speech)
Alternate: Dante Ferretti (Shutter Island)
Costume Design
Alice in Wonderland
Black Swan
Burlesque
The King’s Speech
True Girt
Alternate: The Tempest
Best Sound Mixing
127 Hours
Black Swan
Inception
The Social Network
True Grit
Alternate: Shutter Island
Best Sound Editing
127 Hours
Black Swan
Inception
Toy Story 3
True Grit
Alternate: The Social Network
Best Original Song
"If I Rise" - 127 Hours
"You Haven't Seen the Last of Me" - Burlesque
"I See the Light" - Tangled
"We Belong Together" - Toy Story 3
"Shine" - Waiting for Superman
Alternate: "Bound to You" - Burlesque
Animated Feature
How to Train Your Dragon
The Illusionist
Toy Story 3
Alternate: Tangled
Documentary Feature
Exit Through the Gift Shop
Inside Job
Restrepo
The Tillman Story
Waiting for Superman
Alternate: Client 9: The Fall of Elliot Spitzer
Foreign Language Feature
Biutiful (Mexico)
Dogtooth (Greece)
In a Better World (Denmark)
Incendies (Canada)
Life Above All (South Africa)
Alternate: Simple Simon (Sweden)