Social Network, True Grit Surge in Movieline's Oscar Index
The Leading 5:
1. Helena Bonham Carter, The King's Speech
2. Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit
3. Melissa Leo, The Fighter
4. Miranda Richardson, Made in Dagenham
5. Julianne Moore, The Kids Are All Right
Outsiders: Jacki Weaver, Animal Kingdom; Barbara Hershey, Black Swan; Rebecca Hall, The Town; Elle Fanning, Somewhere; Juliette Lewis, Conviction
Notes: As noted, Focus insists it will go Best Actress or bust with Julianne Moore, with Elle Fanning supporting the studio's Supporting Actress ambitions at the moment. Good luck with that: Hailee Steinfeld is shaping up as the neophyte to beat for True Grit. And she will be beat in all likelihood -- just by Carter, Leo or the ascendant Richardson, all overdue for Academy recognition and tightening their grips on nominations even as their films face long, bloody battles for awards-season recognition.
The Leading 5:
1. Geoffrey Rush, The King's Speech
2. Andrew Garfield, The Social Network
3. Christian Bale, The Fighter
4. Sam Rockwell, Conviction
5. Justin Timberlake, The Social Network
Outsiders: Mark Ruffalo, The Kids Are All Right; Armie Hammer, The Social Network; John Malkovich, Secretariat; Richard Jenkins, Eat Pray Love; Vincent Cassel, Black Swan
Notes: Inaugural favorite Rockwell suffered the wrath of the perfect King's Speech/Social Network storm, the primary focus of which was whether or not Network could in fact net three Supporting Actor nominations. The Godfather did it, and Garfield, Timberlake and Hammer are each as indispensable as that film's Pacino/Caan/Duvall trio 40 years ago, roiling and shifting like planets in some Mark Zuckerberg orbit. (Bonus points for Hammer in a dual role.) We lost Richard Jenkins, alas, with Malkovich creeping into the picture for Secretariat. Loud suits and Oscar droughts will do that for a guy.
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Comments
How are you guys compiling this index? Based on your own weekly personal feelings? Or based on what other magazines, websites and bloggers are saying?
Anyway, the only thing I can say for sure is Anne Hathaway is not getting in for Love and Other Drugs I saw an advance screening last night (in NYC) and the movie and her performance is nothing beyond what a standard romantic comedy calls for. She has a few scenes where we see her struggling with her Parkinsons but nothing that will make you say "WOW". Every single one of your Outsiders has a better chance at getting in than Hathaway. You don't have to take my word for it but I am 99.9% positive that come Nov. or even Oct. she will be completely off the Oscar radar.
As per last week's introductory explanation, it's compiled from "reading/hearing general word-of-mouth, personal hunches and a mild favoritism complex." It's hardly scientific (obviously, I hope), but we link to references where possible and trace (and who knows, maybe even influence!) the prevailing tide as it changes.
In any case, it's not pulled from anyone's ass, and it's certainly not about being Unequivocally Right -- especially not this early. Your input re Hathaway, for starters, is really helpful, and goes a long way to exposing this stage of the race for the arbitrary hype machine it can be. Send more!