Social Network, True Grit Surge in Movieline's Oscar Index
The Leading 5:
1. Natalie Portman, Black Swan
2. Annette Bening, The Kids Are All Right
3. Anne Hathaway, Love and Other Drugs
4. Julianne Moore, The Kids Are All Right
5. Sally Hawkins, Made in Dagenham
Outsiders: Nicole Kidman, Rabbit Hole; Jennifer Lawrence, Winter's Bone; Michelle Williams, Blue Valentine; Lesley Manville, Another Year; Diane Lane, Secretariat; Naomi Watts, Fair Game
Notes: Not a lot to say here: The Rabbit Hole buzz has quieted way down after Toronto, allowing Sally Hawkins to lead the '60s-era women's-lib drama Made in Dagenhem's slow-building charge into the Oscar derby. Word is also picking up that Julianne Moore is accruing favor for a nomination if not necessarily a win (front-running co-star Annette Being crept up proportionately); Jennifer Lawrence or Michelle Williams can wait. Lawrence will be a coin toss until the morning the nominations are announced, but not so much Williams, whom Harvey Weinstein had better start pushing in earnest soon if he plans an awards-season return on his Sundance investment. Hathaway rose a bit if only for anticipation's sake.
The Leading 5:
1. Colin Firth, The King's Speech
2. Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network
3. Javier Bardem, Biutiful
4. James Franco, 127 Hours
5. Jeff Bridges, True Grit
Outsiders: Mark Wahlberg, The Fighter; Robert Duvall, Get Low; Ryan Gosling, Blue Valentine; Paul Giamatti, Barney's Version; Ryan Reynolds, Buried
Notes: The good news for Javier Bardem's extraordinary performance is that Mexico will officially submit Biutiful as its entry in the Best Foreign-Language Film category. The bad news is that it looks increasingly like Colin Firth's "year," with the most substantial backlash coming from observers who want to make it a two-horse race between the "act-ier" Firth and the more natural Eisenberg -- who is flat-out great divining another character who, like Firth's King George VI, is almost constitutionally incapable of grappling with his vast, sudden power. Like pretty much everyone else affiliated with True Grit, Bridges saw his stock soar after the release of the film's teaser.
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Comments
How are you guys compiling this index? Based on your own weekly personal feelings? Or based on what other magazines, websites and bloggers are saying?
Anyway, the only thing I can say for sure is Anne Hathaway is not getting in for Love and Other Drugs I saw an advance screening last night (in NYC) and the movie and her performance is nothing beyond what a standard romantic comedy calls for. She has a few scenes where we see her struggling with her Parkinsons but nothing that will make you say "WOW". Every single one of your Outsiders has a better chance at getting in than Hathaway. You don't have to take my word for it but I am 99.9% positive that come Nov. or even Oct. she will be completely off the Oscar radar.
As per last week's introductory explanation, it's compiled from "reading/hearing general word-of-mouth, personal hunches and a mild favoritism complex." It's hardly scientific (obviously, I hope), but we link to references where possible and trace (and who knows, maybe even influence!) the prevailing tide as it changes.
In any case, it's not pulled from anyone's ass, and it's certainly not about being Unequivocally Right -- especially not this early. Your input re Hathaway, for starters, is really helpful, and goes a long way to exposing this stage of the race for the arbitrary hype machine it can be. Send more!