Introducing Movieline's 2010 Oscar Index: Your Weekly, Fool-Proof Awards-Race Breakdown

The Leading 5:

1. Melissa Leo, The Fighter

2. Helena Bonham Carter, The King's Speech

3. Julianne Moore, The Kids Are All Right

4. Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit

5. Jacki Weaver, Animal Kingdom

Outsiders: Barbara Hershey, Black Swan; Rebecca Hall, The Town; Miranda Richardson, Made in Dagenham; Elle Fanning, Somewhere; Juliette Lewis, Conviction

Notes: Jacki Weaver should have run away with this category a long time ago, but modest returns and virtually zero buzz for Animal Kingdom leave her on the bubble. Now it's reportedly Melissa Leo's to lose -- except no one's seen The Fighter -- so watch for threats from the beloved Carter and Moore as critics and voters actually get a look at the film. Hershey could find some momentum as well if Black Swan hums along in the top three and young Coen Brothers discovery Steinfeld underwhelms in True Grit. So... yeah. Watch out for flying hype.

The Leading 5:

1. Sam Rockwell, Conviction

2. Christian Bale, The Fighter

3. Geoffrey Rush, The King's Speech

4. Andrew Garfield, The Social Network

5. Mark Ruffalo, The Kids Are All Right

Outsiders:

Justin Timberlake, The Social Network; Richard Jenkins, Eat Pray Love; Vincent Cassel, Black Swan; Jeremy Renner, The Town; John Malkovich, Secretariat;

Notes: Can you believe that Sam Rockwell has never been nominated for an Oscar? It seems like heresy -- and finally, now that he's supposed to be superb in an otherwise lukewarm biopic, it's almost more heretical that said biopic will earn him his first nod. I mean... Moon? Confessions of a Dangerous Mind? The Assassination of Jesse James? Anyway, his only real competition at the moment is Christian Bale -- again, of that heretofore unseen The Fighter, but who delivers yet another shapeshifting physical performance as Mark Wahlberg's brother and trainer. Timberlake (Justin Timberlake!) is right on the edge as well; he could swap out with either Ruffalo or even Garfield, and if Social Network's profile swallows Conviction's the way it looks like it could, he might even advance to top-three for the Oscarcast glam factor alone.

What do you say?

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