Introducing Movieline's 2010 Oscar Index: Your Weekly, Fool-Proof Awards-Race Breakdown

The Leading 5:

1. Natalie Portman, Black Swan

2. Annette Bening, The Kids Are All Right

3. Anne Hathaway, Love and Other Drugs

4. Nicole Kidman, Rabbit Hole

5. Jennifer Lawrence, Winter's Bone

Outsiders: Julianne Moore, The Kids Are All Right ; Michelle Williams, Blue Valentine; Lesley Manville, Another Year; Diane Lane, Secretariat; Naomi Watts, Fair Game

Notes: You know how I feel about Portman's performance -- which doesn't mean anything when going up against sentimental favorite (and legitimately strong contender) Annette Bening. Focus's lobbing of Julianne Moore into the Best Actress race is just an early-fall gambit to keep The Kids Are All Right in the Oscar soup; she'll be on the Supporting Actress tip in no time. Nicole Kidman had raves out of Toronto but is a previous winner doing above-average work in a year when Oscar 0-fers and newcomers offer career-defining performances, so expect her to fall off as the months pass and she and Rabbit Hole succumb to late-December heavy-hitters like Michelle Williams and Lesley Manville.

The Leading 5:

1. Javier Bardem, Biutiful

2. Robert Duvall, Get Low

3. James Franco, 127 Hours

4. Colin Firth, The King's Speech

5. Mark Wahlberg, The Fighter

Outsiders: Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network; Jeff Bridges, True Grit; Ryan Reynolds, Buried; Ryan Gosling, Blue Valentine; Paul Giamatti, Barney's Version

Notes: Along with Supporting Actress, probably the toughest category to crunch at the moment. Bardem's Best Actor prize at Cannes means nothing to the Academy, but the long shadow of his towering performance should stretch well past the nominations phase. Duvall is roundly favored to earn a valedictory nod for Get Low, another Toronto darling -- from last year -- that might dig up some traction in other acting categories as well toward the end of the year. Harvey Weinstein thinks, for the second straight year, that he will buy Colin Firth an Oscar; this time, with the actor portraying the speech-impeded King of England (the Academy loves disabilities!), Harvey may pull it out.

Watch out for Ryan Reynolds, though, especially if Buried is the hit Lionsgate is working toward. It's truly strong, unique work under wildly extreme conditions; we've seen worse snubs, for sure, and Eisenberg's easily in front of him if The Social Network takes off Oct. 1, but the more I talk to people on the circuit the more I believe Hollywood wants to recognize the guy. This may be their best chance before he disappears into Green Lantern franchise oblivion.

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