Oscar Index: 'Zero Dark Thirty' Caught In The Cross-Hairs

Best Actor

Daniel Day-Lewis remains the frontrunner, so expect an increase in planted newspaper stories that Lincoln was gay (then again, this being Hollywood and all, that could swing even more votes Day-Lewis’ way). Bradley Cooper, Hugh Jackman and John Hawkes received SAG nominations and are expected to ride their respective films’ critical and commercial acclaim to Oscar nominations. Despite a Golden Globe nomination for Joaquin Phoenix, the SAG’s snub of the impolitic actor puts his Oscar chances in serious jeopardy, putting Denzel Washington, who did receive a Guild nomination, back in the pilot’s seat. Richard Gere’s Golden Globe nomination for Arbitrage is nice recognition, but it may not be enough to elbow in to this tight field.

1. Daniel Day-Lewis (Lincoln)
2. Bradley Cooper (Silver Linings Playbook)
3. Hugh Jackman (Les Miserables)
4. John Hawkes (The Sessions)
5. Denzel Washington (Flight)

Ones to watch: Joaquin Phoenix (The Master), Richard Gere (Arbitrage)

Best Actress

An SAG nomination is not a guarantee of an Oscar nod. Just ask Tilda Swinton. So don’t rule out Emmanuelle Riva or Quvenzhane Wallis yet. Deadline Hollywood’s Pete Hammond called the 85 year-old Riva’s SAG omission the “most surprising,” adding, “Her name is usually the first one out of the mouth of the Academy’s female actors with whom I have spoken. I think this is definitely a case where Oscar will differ.”

1. Jessica Chastain (Zero Dark Thirty)
2. Jennifer Lawrence (Silver Linings Playbook)
3. Marion Cotillard (Rust & Bone)
4. Naomi Watts (The Impossible)
5. Helen Mirren (Hitchcock)

Ones to watch: Emmanuelle Riva (Amour), Quvenzhane Wallis (Beasts of the Southern Wild)

Next: Best Supporting Actor & Actress

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