Oscar Index: And the Winner is... Old
The Leading 5:
1. Meryl Streep, The Iron Lady
2. Viola Davis, The Help
3. Michelle Williams, My Week With Marilyn
4. Tilda Swinton, We Need to Talk About Kevin
5. Glenn Close, Albert Nobbs
Outsiders: Charlize Theron, Young Adult; Rooney Mara, The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo; Felicity Jones, Like Crazy; Elizabeth Olsen, Martha Marcy May Marlene; Kirsten Dunst, Melancholia
I could point to a number of factors as influences in this week's Actress chart -- Swinton surprising everyone in the NBR turnout, or Davis tirelessly stalking the campaign circuit, or Mara dazzling early viewers exposed to Dragon Tattoo, or the Siberian draft gradually freezing out the House of Close (though Nathaniel Rogers offers a compelling argument why she'll remain among the Final Five) -- but unless the President of the United States plans to confess a crush on any of them the way he did the other night for Kennedy Center Honoree Meryl Streep, you might as well just engrave the damn statuette to save time on Oscar night [via Awards Daily]:
The Leading 5:
1. Jean Dujardin, The Artist
2. George Clooney, The Descendants
3. Michael Fassbender, Shame
4. Brad Pitt, Moneyball
5. Gary Oldman, Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy
Outsiders: Michael Shannon, Take Shelter; Leonardo DiCaprio, J. Edgar; Demian Bichir, A Better Life; Woody Harrelson, Rampart; Ralph Fiennes, Coriolanus; Andy Serkis, Rise of the Planet of the Apes
Considering how Clooney lost the Oscar each of the last two times the National Board of Review awarded him its Best Actor prize (for Michael Clayton and Up in the Air), maybe the cosmos is saying something. Either way, expect the actors branch to take notice of both the risk and reward -- as in a $35,000-per-screen reward, a welcome rebuke of the ostensibly anti-commercial NC-17 rating -- of Fassbender's performance, which continues to burrow into the top-five frontrunners listed from Gold Derby to In Contention to THR and beyond.
Speaking of THR, the site's resident awards correspondent Scott Feinberg explains why you might very well see Bechir replacing the freefalling DiCaprio as early as next week:
Could that tantalizingly up-for-grabs fifth slot be grabbed by... a Mexican actor whose name virtually no one even knows? I can't help but notice how often Academy members bring up "the guy from A Better Life." Sometimes quality perfs simply rise to the top, and Summit's decision to mail screeners early seems to have gotten this one seen.
Who knows? Maybe next year he'll be the one in a studio comedy opposite Alison Brie. Developing...
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Comments
Jeremy Irons should be nominated for Margin Call, not Spacey.
I like that the Best Supporting Actress race has begun to resemble a totem pole.
Ha! I knew there was something distinctive about it.
This year is so wide open. Don't really think there are any solid favorites and buzz will shift and get behind unexpected things. Margin Call is one of those, all of a sudden it starts getting nominated, winning, and buzz starts growing. Feel like that one is a dark horse that can pull out some surprises. Also with appreciating buzz: Rooney Mara, she could swoop in and liven up the Best Actress race.
I see Midnight in Paris listed as a contender alot of places, but it doesn't seem to be winning anything. Is it really on the radar anymore? Kind of worrisome for its chances.
Elizabeth Olsen and MMMM's buzz has completely stalled. I think that's out. Leo DiCaprio and JEdgar is out. It's still such a wide open race though, I can't remember when things have been this uncertain. I think it says something about the "top" movies that everyone is supposed to like....people might not like them as much as they want you to believe.