Oscar Index: Hello, Hugo! (And Goodbye, J. Edgar)
The Leading 5:
1. Octavia Spencer, The Help
2. Vanessa Redgrave, Coriolanus
3. [tie] Bérénice Bejo, The Artist
3. [tie] Shailene Woodley, The Descendants
5. Sandra Bullock, Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
Outsiders: Melissa McCarthy, Bridesmaids; Jessica Chastain, The Help; Janet McTeer, Albert Nobbs; Jessica Chastain, Take Shelter; Jessica Chastain, The Tree of Life; Judy Greer, The Descendants; Judi Dench, J. Edgar; Keira Knightley, A Dangerous Method; Mia Wasikowska, Albert Nobbs; Emily Watson, War Horse; Marion Cotillard, Midnight in Paris
I can't really detect more than the most subtle of movements here -- things like Woodley finding continued support in list after list, Chastain being essentially interchangeable as a contender in three separate roles of varying profiles and stature (though we'll see about campaign power), Redgrave continuing to dazzle in Coriolanus... I'm not as sure of Spencer's supremacy as I used to be, but ultimately I'm also not sure who has the edge to pull even and/or overtake her. Does anyone even want Best Supporting Actress at this point? Put it on eBay or something.
The Leading 5:
1. Christopher Plummer, Beginners
2. Max von Sydow, Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
3. Kenneth Branagh, My Week With Marilyn
4. Albert Brooks, Drive
5. Armie Hammer J. Edgar
Outsiders: Jonah Hill, Moneyball; Nick Nolte, Warrior; Patton Oswalt, Young Adult; Corey Stoll, Midnight in Paris; Jim Broadbent, The Iron Lady; Viggo Mortensen, A Dangerous Method; John C. Reilly, Carnage; Philip Seymour Hoffman, Moneyball; Tom Hanks, Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
All that noise about DiCaprio? Ditto for Hammer. Well, maybe not so much: Some are at least persuaded to believe he's not a one-hit (or do the Winklevii count as two hits?) wonder for The Social Network, and it is interesting to see him doing such heavy promotional lifting for a film that was supposed to be a showcase for DiCaprio, Naomi Watts and Judi Dench. But despite such claims that "his 'Oscar' scene is not his finest moment (over the top and out of character)," this is arguably the most impact we've seen in Supporting Actor since... OK, since last week. But still! Fleeting at it may be, Hammer time is again upon us.
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Comments
Ok. I understand not having Thomas Horn as a top contender for best lead actor but come on... How do you think he doesn't even have an outside chance? You haven't seen the movie yet (I know) but here is the STAR of one of the front runners for best picture! Max Von Sydow never speaks a word in the film and plays off of horn entirely... I think everyone has a big surprise coming to them when they finally get a glimpse of his performance...
The Tree of Life has got to be nominated before the Emma Stone nice white lady movie, the Jonathan Safran Foer 9/11 movie or the Spielberg horse movie. For gahd's sake people!
You Americans are so strange with your preoccupation with box-office. Isn´t the best actor race about - acting? Artistry? In what sense is it more "honorable" to wait for box-office results before deciding if DiCaprio - or anyone else - should be in the race? How can profit possibly have any effect on the quality of a performance?
You really seem to have lost the plot.
Maybe we do! But for the 1,000th time, _this feature is not about who I want or think should win_. It's about distilling the larger Oscar conversation to one weekly survey. Thomas Horn is nowhere to be found in that conversation, so he's not on the Index. I doubt that will change (early reports from viewers say he's admirable at best and annoying at worst), but I'm totally willing to be wrong! I couldn't care less either way.
You'll always have the critics awards!
Excuse me? I think you're mistaking the Oscars for the Nobels. In case you didn't notice, Brett Freaking Ratner was selected and summarily deposed as this year's producer. They went to a flexible number of Best Picture candidates to allow for blockbusters that wouldn't otherwise get in. Great performances have been snubbed for mainstream favorites and celebrity heft since this thing started. Hell, if I were you, I'd still be bitter about _The Sting_ triumphing over _Cries and Whispers_ in 1973.
In other words, the plot goes like this: The Academy doesn't do meritocracy.
Never forget that Hollywood is a high school, and the Oscars is its' prom.
I see, so it´s about money and mediocrity. And when you write "...allow for the more reasonable, honorable outcome", you really mean "...allow for the more commercially rational outcome."
Thank you for explaining. And my condolences, I guess. Because you do still make a lot of good films, with gripping and true performances.
Streep is Weinstein's ace in the hole. A last minute entry for Oscar with a powerhouse performance by Meryl. This seems to make the most sense. Willams cannot overtake Davis.
*Smiles as Fincher edges his way up the list*
"I see, so it´s about money and mediocrity."
Now you're getting the hang of it!
Why does that grey line in Best Actress just end? It's like her Oscar hopes just evaporated into thin air.
Ohhh, my. That is Olivia Colman's brief peek into contention; her line will be restored this week. Thanks for the catch! Not sure what happened there...