Oscar Index: Hello, Hugo! (And Goodbye, J. Edgar)
The Leading 5:
1. Viola Davis, The Help
2. Michelle Williams, My Week With Marilyn
3. Meryl Streep, The Iron Lady
4. Glenn Close, Albert Nobbs
5. Charlize Theron, Young Adult
Outsiders: Elizabeth Olsen, Martha Marcy May Marlene; Tilda Swinton, We Need to Talk About Kevin; Rooney Mara, The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo; Felicity Jones, Like Crazy; Kirsten Dunst, Melancholia; Keira Knightley, A Dangerous Method
Best Picture may have the most stirring drama of the week, but Actress may boast the season's real intrigue. To wit, what the hell is Harvey Weinstein -- who already moved My Week With Marilyn to compete with The Artist on Thanksgiving weekend -- doing pushing Iron Lady all the way to the last possible minute in December? He either has the performance of the year from Streep (and a good film around it), for whom he's seeking the last word, or he is all-in with Michelle Williams. The latter would hardly be his worst bet, and certainly not his least likely: Judging by the date shifts and Williams's continuing festival support, the pro-Marilyn bias seems increasingly obvious every week.
Meanwhile, Close's profile slips again thanks to what feels like outright sabotage by distributor Roadside Attractions; a hideous new Albert Nobbs poster joins the film's grueling trailer in a marketing campaign apparently determined to scare anybody off of actually wanting to see or support a movie that's still limping from the beating it took on its festival rounds in September. Theron, though, remains in good shape for Young Adult, with Kristopher Tapley insisting in this week's Actress round-up over at In Contention: "Charlize Theron is a monster (no pun intended) in Jason Reitman's Young Adult, giving, without question, one of the year's best performances. She's in."
Melancholia's opening week gave cause to add Dunst back to the mix, though... yeah. Don't get your hopes up, noble as they are. Amirite, Jeffrey Wells?
The Leading 5:
1. George Clooney, The Descendants
2. Jean Dujardin, The Artist
3. Michael Fassbender, Shame
4. Leonardo DiCaprio, J. Edgar
5. Brad Pitt, Moneyball
Outsiders: Gary Oldman, Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy; Ralph Fiennes, Coriolanus; Michael Shannon, Take Shelter; Woody Harrelson, Rampart; Demian Bichir, A Better Life; Andy Serkis, Rise of the Planet of the Apes; Ryan Gosling, The Ides of March
So! What are we going to do about DiCaprio? How do we reconcile the stench of J. Edgar with the actor-producer's unrequited Oscar hankerings, particularly in a year where two other superstar contemporaries are squaring off against celebrated upstarts in films that people actually like? To say nothing of Oldman, coiled and hungry out in the tall December grass, or the likes of Fiennes (equally hungry and even fiercer in the fast-coming Coriolanus), Harrelson (who, depending on whom you ask, may or may not be a serious contender), Bichir (currently one of the hardest-working, most-liked actors on the Oscar hunt) or even Andy Serkis (a true artist for whom Fox is reviving the mocap-or-not campaign strategy it pioneered with a sympathetic Zoe Saldana two years ago).
I guess we rally. I think? Kristopher Tapley and Anne Thompson took to their podcast to agree that DiCaprio still has more than just a foothold in the race, with Tapley adding in his J. Edgar review, "I think it could very well carry him to that elusive first Oscar win." Movie City News's Gurus o' Gold have DiCaprio ranked third in their latest poll -- which came out after the film's Best Picture chances were essentially clubbed to death last weekend. "[I]t's now obvious the best actor race will come down to Clooney and DiCaprio," wrote Gregory Ellwood. "He'll easily be nominated. He might very well win," noted Sasha Stone. OK, then.
Look: I know he's Leo. I know he's powerful. And I'm just here to read what comes back from the lab. But for an organization already reeling this year from an Oscars' legitimacy issue, what's the upside of adding an unpopular film to the mix just because they're supposed to? Why would DiCaprio even want that? Let's wait and see with the opening box-office and at least allow for the more reasonable, honorable outcome.
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Comments
Ok. I understand not having Thomas Horn as a top contender for best lead actor but come on... How do you think he doesn't even have an outside chance? You haven't seen the movie yet (I know) but here is the STAR of one of the front runners for best picture! Max Von Sydow never speaks a word in the film and plays off of horn entirely... I think everyone has a big surprise coming to them when they finally get a glimpse of his performance...
The Tree of Life has got to be nominated before the Emma Stone nice white lady movie, the Jonathan Safran Foer 9/11 movie or the Spielberg horse movie. For gahd's sake people!
You Americans are so strange with your preoccupation with box-office. Isn´t the best actor race about - acting? Artistry? In what sense is it more "honorable" to wait for box-office results before deciding if DiCaprio - or anyone else - should be in the race? How can profit possibly have any effect on the quality of a performance?
You really seem to have lost the plot.
Maybe we do! But for the 1,000th time, _this feature is not about who I want or think should win_. It's about distilling the larger Oscar conversation to one weekly survey. Thomas Horn is nowhere to be found in that conversation, so he's not on the Index. I doubt that will change (early reports from viewers say he's admirable at best and annoying at worst), but I'm totally willing to be wrong! I couldn't care less either way.
You'll always have the critics awards!
Excuse me? I think you're mistaking the Oscars for the Nobels. In case you didn't notice, Brett Freaking Ratner was selected and summarily deposed as this year's producer. They went to a flexible number of Best Picture candidates to allow for blockbusters that wouldn't otherwise get in. Great performances have been snubbed for mainstream favorites and celebrity heft since this thing started. Hell, if I were you, I'd still be bitter about _The Sting_ triumphing over _Cries and Whispers_ in 1973.
In other words, the plot goes like this: The Academy doesn't do meritocracy.
Never forget that Hollywood is a high school, and the Oscars is its' prom.
I see, so it´s about money and mediocrity. And when you write "...allow for the more reasonable, honorable outcome", you really mean "...allow for the more commercially rational outcome."
Thank you for explaining. And my condolences, I guess. Because you do still make a lot of good films, with gripping and true performances.
Streep is Weinstein's ace in the hole. A last minute entry for Oscar with a powerhouse performance by Meryl. This seems to make the most sense. Willams cannot overtake Davis.
*Smiles as Fincher edges his way up the list*
"I see, so it´s about money and mediocrity."
Now you're getting the hang of it!
Why does that grey line in Best Actress just end? It's like her Oscar hopes just evaporated into thin air.
Ohhh, my. That is Olivia Colman's brief peek into contention; her line will be restored this week. Thanks for the catch! Not sure what happened there...