Oscar Index: We Need to Talk About Spielberg
The Leading 5:
1. Octavia Spencer, The Help
2. Bérénice Bejo, The Artist
3. Vanessa Redgrave, Coriolanus
4. Shailene Woodley, The Descendants
5. Sandra Bullock, Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
Outsiders: Jessica Chastain, Take Shelter; Melissa McCarthy, Bridesmaids; Janet McTeer, Albert Nobbs; Judy Greer, The Descendants; Jessica Chastain, The Help; Judi Dench, J. Edgar; Keira Knightley, A Dangerous Method; Mia Wasikowska, Albert Nobbs; Emily Watson, War Horse; Marion Cotillard, Midnight in Paris
I'll cop to a bit of laziness in this category; McTeer and Greer are pretty easily interchangeable with Chastain and McCarthy at this point (though I lean Team McCarthy simply because she's got a following out there, and the types of Bridesmaids events we've seen and can anticipate seem bound to stir a bigger character-actor constituency than Greer can probably depend on, especially while battling Woodley in the same category), and no one's legitimately challenging Spencer at this point anyway. Except... maybe... Redgrave. She's pretty amazing in Coriolanus, delivering precisely the kind of Oscar-tailored role -- hell, she delivers the entire climax -- that shores up the blistering lead work by Ralph Fiennes. It's pretty much perfect, and if you happen to see Viola Davis running away with Best Actress, don't be surprised to see the actors' branch shift its weight from Spencer and The Help toward the deserving 74-year-old legend.
The Leading 5:
1. Christopher Plummer, Beginners
2. Max von Sydow, Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
3. Kenneth Branagh, My Week With Marilyn
4. Albert Brooks, Drive
5. Nick Nolte, Warrior
Outsiders: Jonah Hill, Moneyball; Patton Oswalt, Young Adult; Corey Stoll, Midnight in Paris; Jim Broadbent, The Iron Lady; Viggo Mortensen, A Dangerous Method; John C. Reilly, Carnage; Philip Seymour Hoffman, Moneyball; Armie Hammer, J. Edgar; Tom Hanks, Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
Hey, look! Competition! Per Jeffrey Wells, who attended a special Young Adult screening Tuesday in L.A.: "The good news is that I wasn't the only one who admired the hell out of it, and that Patton Oswalt, portraying a blunt-spoken, half-crippled fat guy who befriends Charlize Theron's neurotic writer character, is now a Best Supporting Actor contender... definitely." I hope and pray, if only for the promise of nominee-luncheon livetweets. (e.g. "Plummer and von Sydow slept though group portrait #VotePatton," "Nolte? More like Noshow #VotePatton" etc. etc.) Or... not. Anyway.
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Comments
I love living in a world where Patton Oswalt is a viable Oscar contender.
(For now, anyway)
I get that "War Horse" is obviously trolling for Academy Awards, an inevitability with any film of this type released this time of year. But what really pisses me off is the sense of entitlement Steven Spielberg is exuding, as if he deserves a third directing Oscar because he read it in the cosmos. That the material he chose is shrewd, emotionally-manipulative bait isn't helping his case either.
Alan! Rickman! Reckanize!
The Oscar race will be a lot more interesting if Jason Reitman's Young Adult turns out to be a bigger hit than we've been expecting. And I still hope Kirsten Dunst receives a little recognition as a contender if Melancholia opens well. Because if the current front-runners end up being the Oscar nominees, I'll be very bored.
Watch out for _Girl With the Dragon Tattoo_. That's the noisemaker, I can feel it.
I don't want to sound like a spammer, but I think Armond White has this whole Oscar buzz thing pegged.