Oscar Index: We Need to Talk About Spielberg

The Leading 5:

1. Viola Davis, The Help

2. Meryl Streep, The Iron Lady

3. Michelle Williams, My Week With Marilyn

4. Glenn Close, Albert Nobbs

5. Elizabeth Olsen, Martha Marcy May Marlene

Outsiders: Charlize Theron, Young Adult; Tilda Swinton, We Need to Talk About Kevin; Rooney Mara, The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo; Felicity Jones, Like Crazy; Olivia Colman, Tyrannosaur; Keira Knightley, A Dangerous Method

What a weird category: While most Oscar-watchers seem to agree on Davis, Streep, Williams and Close as evident locks for nominations, the middle of the pack -- particularly who could and/or should fill in the No. 5 spot -- is totally fluid and up for grabs. Mara earned a boost thanks to the general support for Dragon Tattoo, but as long as Olsen and Jones's indie darlings keep performing among art house viewers and critics, and as long as Oscar alums Theron and Swinton maintain their steady, don't-peak-too-early momentum, it seems irrational to nudge either of them out of the early running.

That said, a few developments did jolt the front-runners -- none more so than Williams's dynamic, detailed explanation of how and why she came to inhabit Marilyn Monroe. This is some of the most savory awards bait I've seen in a while, dropped squarely on the plates of critics in NYC and L.A and the National Board of Review as they start firming up their minds ahead of this month's all-important year-end votes. Meanwhile, it looks like the best that someone like Close can hope for at this point is some Tokyo Film Festival laurels and a Best Original Song contingency plan. It wasn't supposed to go this way, was it? Speaking of which, Sony Classics still insists on running Keira Knightley in Lead Actress, so you might as well stick a fork in her. That's over.

The Leading 5:

1. George Clooney, The Descendants

2. Jean Dujardin, The Artist

3. Michael Fassbender, Shame

4. Brad Pitt, Moneyball

5. Leonardo DiCaprio, J. Edgar

Outsiders: Gary Oldman, Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy; Michael Shannon, Take Shelter; Woody Harrelson, Rampart; Damian Bechir, A Better Life; Ryan Gosling, The Ides of March

We've already established Clooney's steadfastness at the front of the pack; conjuring another word about him would feel roughly equivalent to passing a kidney stone the size of his Italian villa. But how about The Fass! Awards recognition across the pond (shared in part by Oldman) was buttressed by continued, passionate conversation about Shame's NC-17, led by Sasha Stone:

[W]hy does the NC-17 rating affect the film's chances? For some reason, Oscar voters shy away from controversy. Maybe this is changing a bit. Maybe they will come to their senses and nominate Fassbender anyway -- who, by the way, gave the performance of the year in Shame. [...] I'm going to bet, all things considered, that he somehow makes it in.

Failing that, I'd keep an eye out for Harrelson, who was quietly on the Rampart promotional circuit this week in NYC -- basically playing the same critics-group circuit as Williams, Theron and Olsen in Best Actress -- and will likely be fighting to the Oscar-nomination death with Fassbender, Oldman and the fading Michael Shannon. It's a long shot -- a very long shot -- but it's also early. Just you wait.

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