Oscar Index: It's All Over But the Crying
The Nominees:
1. Natalie Portman, Black Swan
2. Annette Bening, The Kids Are All Right
3. Jennifer Lawrence, Winter's Bone
4. Michelle Williams, Blue Valentine
5. Nicole Kidman, Rabbit Hole
Notes: Here's another fence-sitting category. I personally have changed my tune about this one -- I think Bening, too, has ridden a wave of notoriety and Academy goodwill over the last few weeks that will wash Portman away -- but this isn't really about my picks. It's about guys like Hammond, Robert Osborne and Tom O'Neil pointing out the potential insurmountability of the Bening legacy:
Portman has behaved most graciously throughout this awards season, of course, but there are several good reasons why she could be tripped up by Bening, who is: 1) a three-time past loser overdue to win; 2) a member of the academy's Board of Governors; 3) a heterosexual star who plays gay, which earned Oscar gold for Sean Penn (Milk) and Tom Hanks (Philadelphia).
Still more evidence points to valuable votes being siphoned off to the likes of Michelle Williams and Nicole Kidman, suggesting either a Portman-Bening split that might let someone like Williams or, less likely, Jennifer Lawrence through to a shocking win. We all remember 2008, right? Ellen Page vs. Julie Christie? And it finally wound up with Marion Cotillard? Anyway, Vegas is barely offering a front runner at this point, and the Index does show the awards orthodoxy remains fixed behind Portman. But if you want to actually win your Oscar pool this year, going for Bening is about as informed an upset as you can pick. Just saying!
The Nominees:
1. Colin Firth, The King's Speech
2. Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network
3. Javier Bardem, Biutiful
4. Jeff Bridges, True Grit
5. James Franco, 127 Hours
Notes: OK, now this one is over: All 43 out of 43 pundits surveyed in the last week agree Firth will win his first Academy Award on Sunday. Moving on...
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Comments
Could you post a chart, or at least a handy guide, to the shorts/animated/doc categories?
Those are the ones that always trip me up in the pool, and they're always the ones that give me a leg up when I think crazy thoughts like Toy Story 3 will win a surprise Best Picture.
Winchester! I love the shorts categories, and I, too, would love to see someone from ML give some reviews. I just saw all animateds this weekend and plan to see live actions soon. From my completely uneducated, non-industry perspective, The Lost Thing was by far the best animated short. Moving story, original artwork and design, beautiful colors and animation (I cried, but because it was so subtle, I actually have to search through my own atrophied emotions to understand its trigger. Beautiful.). On the other end of the spectrum was Let's Pollute!, which, aside from its ham-fisted politically correct message, mystifies me as to the reasons for its nomination.
And, Stu--re: Annette Bening-- don't forget the heterosexual actor playing gay who beat Annette--Hilary Swank in Boys Don't Cry. I would love for Annette to join this group. I would have picked her both times previously against Hilary, but particularly when Hilary won for Million Dollar Baby. I'm still scratching my head on that one.
It would be interesting to see the full charts, especially in the races where someone who was a top-5 contender months ago is nowhere to be seen in the final 5 to see who they were and why they were so high/fell so low...
twitter.com/roofs_ew
An added plus to the end of this awards season: I won't have to see that weird cut out of Melissa Leo's laughing face you are using again. It scares me.
Careful. It's that kind of thinking that caused a "Grazer-head" image to be burned onto my old laptop monitor.
It still haunts me...
Thanks for the suggestions re shorts. We will try to figure it out! And you're absolutely right about Swank in both years. I do think Bening will come back to win this year. We'll see....
I hear you. Let me see if I can pull that together. In a perfect world I'd just rip out an animated GIF of all twentysomething weeks, but... yeah.
I am getting so tired of Bale's rant (from years ago) being blown up into a lifetime of being difficult. He had one bad day and a screwy family and now it's turned into a "checkered personal history"? Come on. The large majority of people who have worked with him have said that he's an incredibly nice, considerate professional. Please, get over the rant already.