Oscar Index: OK, Everyone, Just Freaking Calm Down About The King's Speech

The Nominees:

1. [tie] Melissa Leo, The Fighter

1. [tie] Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit

3. Helena Bonham Carter, The King's Speech

4. Jacki Weaver, Animal Kingdom

5. Amy Adams, The Fighter

Notes: While polling readers to gauge the SAG award-winner most vulnerable to an Oscar defeat, O'Neil himself chooses Leo as the likeliest upset. I couldn't agree more; Steinfeld is one of those once-in-a-generation talents -- and by once in a generation, I literally mean that an adolescent won Best Supporting Actress in 1974, 1994 and now... 2011? Oh, and another thing about Steinfeld: She's awesome, and you don't hear anybody going around lamenting her scenery-chewing or bombast or terrible hair or whatever. (If anything, she's a resilient young woman who emerged from her blood feud with Lea Michele all the more powerful.) There's the outside chance of Carter sneaking in as well should King's Speech continue its tear, and I will never give up on Jacki Weaver, but! This is the Oscar Index, not idle speculation or a Team Jacki rally. Awards science must prevail.

The Nominees:

1. Christian Bale, The Fighter

2. Geoffrey Rush, The King's Speech

3. Mark Ruffalo, The Kids Are All Right

4. John Hawkes, Winter's Bone

5. Jeremy Renner, The Town

Notes: Basically everything I just said for Leo applies to Bale, with the modest qualification that Rush is slightly past the upstart-adolescent phase. Well, that and I simply can't see The Fighter emerging empty-handed on Feb. 27. Nevertheless, the fearless Sasha Stone has called her shot for Rush as part of a King's Speech sweep, and as we know from earlier, she's been wicked accurate before. We shall see...

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