Oscar Index: Will Blue Valentine Ride Its NC-17 Back to Awards Contention?

The Leading 5:

1. Helena Bonham Carter, The King's Speech

2. Jacki Weaver, Animal Kingdom

3. Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit

4. Miranda Richardson, Made in Dagenham

5. Melissa Leo, The Fighter

Outsiders: Dianne Wiest, Rabbit Hole; Julianne Moore, The Kids Are All Right; Barbara Hershey, Black Swan; Elle Fanning, Somewhere; Mila Kunis, Black Swan

Notes: The Academy has its Animal Kingdom screeners (and campaign T-shirts), the buzz is back on, and all is right for Jacki Weaver. Well, except for that part about Carter being in a possible Best Picture-winner. And no one having had a look at Melissa Leo's performance yet. And Miranda Richardson inching slowly up the list of buzzworthy contenders seemingly every week. But still! Instinct rules, and my money remains where it's been for months.

The Leading 5:

1. Geoffrey Rush, The King's Speech

2. Ed Harris, The Way Back

3. Andrew Garfield, The Social Network

4. Christian Bale, The Fighter

5. Sam Rockwell, Conviction

Outsiders: Armie Hammer, The Social Network; Justin Timberlake, The Social Network; Mark Ruffalo, The Kids Are All Right; Matt Damon, True Grit; Vincent Cassel, Black Swan

Notes: No one had a better week than Ed Harris, an Oscarless veteran who ran into the race on The Way Back's, er, back. His is said to be a coiled, intensely smart performance (the film, however, is up for a little more critical debate), which has always been just fine with the actor's branch, at least for this category. The Social Network's biggest hit this week occurred with its actors; Timberlake is falling off the pace while Hammer held steady; I've heard the technique of his work as the Winklevoss twins fascinates a lot of folks who are nevertheless bothered by the VFX-iness of it all -- not unlike Zoe Saldana's turn last year in Avatar. Of course, she didn't have Sorkin writing for her, so we'll see.

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