Oscar Index: Will Blue Valentine Ride Its NC-17 Back to Awards Contention?

The Leading 5:

1. Natalie Portman, Black Swan

2. Annette Bening, The Kids Are All Right

3. Julianne Moore, The Kids Are All Right

4. Sally Hawkins, Made in Dagenham

5. Jennifer Lawrence, Winter's Bone

Outsiders: ; Diane Lane, Secretariat; Michelle Williams, Blue Valentine; Anne Hathaway, Love and Other Drugs; Lesley Manville, Another Year; Nicole Kidman, Rabbit Hole; ; Naomi Watts, Fair Game

Notes: Same as it ever was -- sort of. Michelle Williams benefited from the pseudo-scandal around Blue Valentine; indeed, she is the only remotely good thing about the film. (I know, I know... I'm in the minority now, but talk to me in January.) I really liked Scott Feinberg's piece spelling out Jennifer Lawrence's case for sneaking in, and at Vulture, Lane Brown has a good point about Diane Lane: "They're in an awesome, bizarro feud over [Secretariat] itself, but both Roger Ebert and Andrew O'Hehir agree she's terrific in it." Anne Hathaway and Nicole Kidman should see some renewed buzz once their respective films bow next month at AFI Fest, but until then, they might want to just maintain in the middle where the seasonal hype can't burn them.

The Leading 5:

1. Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network

2. Colin Firth, The King's Speech

3. James Franco, 127 Hours

4. Jeff Bridges, True Grit

5. Javier Bardem, Biutiful

Outsiders: Mark Wahlberg, The Fighter; Ryan Gosling, Blue Valentine; Robert Duvall, Get Low; Paul Giamatti, Barney's Version

Notes: I'd say this is a weak-ass category all around, but does it matter? It's pretty much Firth's to lose at this point whether or not you wind up falling for The King's Speech. The only real movement is on the bubble, where X-factor Wahlberg threatens to nudge Bardem, Bridges, Gosling and/or Duvall out of the running once anybody sees The Fighter. I still think Bardem is a favorite to at least be nominated, and he'll have a nice, post-127 Hours window of November to himself once Biutiful opens limited. Might Bridges, Gosling and Wahlberg cancel each other out in Firth's long December shadow?

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