Emmy Spotlight: Can Alec Baldwin Threepeat as Lead Comedy Actor?

Now that the dust has settled around those Emmy nominations, it's time for Movieline to begin digging into each category to lay down odds for the nominees. Everyone can agree that these year's selections feel fresh and new, but in the Lead Actor in a Comedy category, will tradition reign?

Notable Snubs: Joel McHale, Community, Johnny Galecki, The Big Bang Theory, Charlie Sheen, Two and a Half Men

Alec Baldwin - 30 Rock

For Him: Baldwin's won this award the last two times, and sheer inertia is often the biggest factor to winning a Lead Actor in a Comedy Emmy (the list of recent one-time winners is awfully slim). There are some threats to him in the category, but he's beaten both of them before, so why shouldn't he again?

Against Him: I don't agree with the 30 Rock doom-and-gloomers, but I will say that Baldwin wasn't handed a moment (or storyline) this year that screamed "Emmy clip." Prior wins came via his tour-de-force therapy session with Tracy Morgan or by acting opposite himself. This year, his biggest victory was merely holding his own against Julianne Moore's Boston accent.

Odds: 2-1

Steve Carell - The Office

For Him: Steve Carell has never won in this category, and now that he's announced next season will be his last, it may have reminded voters how much they appreciate his work (and how little time left they have to reward him for it).

Against Him: Both he and the show did better work last season, and Alec Baldwin is still nominated.

Odds: 3-1

Jim Parsons - The Big Bang Theory

For Him: Parsons is a sentimental favorite who some thought should have won last year. Out of all the sitcoms nominated in this category, his is the biggest, and you would think he has momentum going for him...

Against Him: ...except that in one of the Emmys' biggest snubs, The Big Bang Theory again failed to get a Best Comedy Series nod. Might there be less of a following for him in Emmy circles than people think?

Odds: 6-1

Matthew Morrison - Glee

For Him: Glee is a phenomenon this year, and its huge nomination haul could float all boats. Don't discount the fact that Morrison has to sing in almost every episode -- actors appreciate that extra edge.

Against Him: His character is (let's face it) the blandest on a show of big personalities. Voters could hold two things against him: the terrible fake-pregnancy storyline that dominated his early-season work (not his fault) and his painfully white rapping (all his fault).

Odds: 10-1

Tony Shalhoub - Monk

For Him: He's won three times in this category before, and been nominated for all eight seasons of Monk. All eight, people. This is the last time the Emmys can indulge their Shalhoub fetish, as this year brought us Monk's obsessive-compulsive swan song.

Against Him: He hasn't won since 2006 -- to the Emmys, Baldwin may be their new Shalhoub. Still, you can never count the man out. Hell, he could get nominated for this role next year out of sheer habit.

Odds: 20-1

Larry David - Curb Your Enthusiasm

For Him: Well-liked by his industry peers, and the only pay-cable star to land in this category. Voters are clearly partial to HBO here -- even Jemaine Clement scored a nomination last year for Flight of the Conchords.

Against Him: Then again, David himself hasn't been nominated since 2006. It's nice for him to simply make the cut, though who wouldn't want to hear his acceptance speech?

Odds: 40-1



Comments

  • Wonderful breakdown. I would have to agree almost everything. The only thing I disagree with is what you said about Baldwin not having a moment this season. I would argue that the WHOLE season was his moment, since this season has been HORRIBLE. Alec has been the only thing keeping that show afloat, as the other characters have turned into caricatures of caricatures. He's been the only consistently reliable thing on that show this past season.
    Granted, other than his role, I'm not convinced 30 Rock should even be considered for Emmy's (I LOVED every season but the last, but never thought it was "smart" comedy) - but that's really beside the point.

  • sweetbiscuit says:

    I'm rooting for Parsons, who continues to bring nice nuances to his character, though I consider him more Supporting than Lead. And the fact that BBT didn't get a nod shouldn't matter too much -- it didn't stop Shalhoub from winning when "Monk" (the show) was never nominated.

  • Quirky- says:

    If Baldwin doesn't win, please let Larry David have the moment. Both Monk and make my skin crawl and The Office is yet another needless American version of a funnier abroad show. Oh and not to leave out Glee's Morrison...let's just say Mr Schu's mid-30's, white man's rapping makes my skin crawl more than anything on TV and is definitely not comedy.

  • bhm says:

    Where were the nominations for shows where the lead actor is actually funny, where are the nomination for Danny McBride "Eastbound and Down", Thomas Jane "Hung", Adam Scott "Party Down", Jason Scwartzman "Bored to Death", Joel McHale, "Community", or James Roday, "Psych"? Those are 6 better candidates than the this sorry slate. This category is a joke, not as ridiculous as best supporting actress in a drama, but ridiculous none the less. It really is who's pr firm can pay the most to get their client's a nomination because the actual work is meaningless.

  • Amy says:

    Well, the overwhelming favourite here would have to be Jim Parsons, but I'm giving the edge to Tony Shalhoub who submitted the series finale for consideration. There's obviously a lot of love in the TV academy for Shalhoub and I don't think that they're going to miss this last opportunity to award him.
    Alec Baldwin is a third choice, but I don't think the other actors have a hope this year. Steve Carell may be rewarded next year after he completes his final season, but this isn't his year. Matthew Morrison is lucky to have been nominated. Larry David will just have to be content with a nomination.

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