Movieline's 2010 Golden Globe Predictions

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Movieline will be live-blogging the Golden Globes this Sunday (be sure to stop by -- the gang will all be here!), but until then, we're making bets on what will take home the gold. We've already made our TV predictions, but here are the contenders and dark horses who we think are best positioned for glory in the feature film categories:

Best Motion Picture (Drama)

Avatar

The Hurt Locker

Inglourious Basterds

Precious

Up in the Air

FRONT-RUNNER: Avatar, which is peaking at exactly the right time.

DARK HORSE: Inglourious Basterds, whose international, celebrity-studded cast certainly can't hurt it.

Best Motion Picture (Musical or Comedy)

(500) Days of Summer

The Hangover

It's Complicated

Julie & Julia

Nine

FRONT-RUNNER: Before Nine had actually come out, it would have looked like the slam-dunk winner here. It may still have the best chance, but...

DARK HORSE: It's Complicated is nipping at its heels.

Best Director

Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker

James Cameron, Avatar

Clint Eastwood, Invictus

Jason Reitman, Up in the Air

Quentin Tarantino, Inglorious Basterds

FRONT-RUNNER: I think the Globes will seize the opportunity to shine a spotlight on the surging Kathryn Bigelow.

DARK HORSE: Still, it's tough to count James Cameron out.

Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture (Drama)

Emily Blunt, The Young Victoria

Sandra Bullock, The Blind Side

Helen Mirren, The Last Station

Carey Mulligan, An Education

Gabourey Sidibe, Precious

FRONT-RUNNER: Forget the merits of her performance -- Sandra Bullock is the biggest star in the category and this could be a news-making win for her. The Globes will be happy for the headlines.

DARK HORSE: Carey Mulligan is an up-and-coming, international ingenue, and if it weren't for Bullock, she'd walk away with this award.

Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture (Drama)

Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart

George Clooney, Up in the Air

Colin Firth, A Single Man

Morgan Freeman, Invictus

Tobey Maguire, Brothers

FRONT-RUNNER: By dint of the fact that Up in the Air will probably get something, and the Globes love glamour, I think George Clooney has the edge here over Oscar face Jeff Bridges.

DARK HORSE: Still, the well-liked Colin Firth could always slip in and act as the spoiler.

Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture (Musical or Comedy)

Sandra Bullock, The Proposal

Marion Cotillard, Nine

Julia Roberts, Duplicity

Meryl Streep, It's Complicated

Meryl Streep, Julie and Julia

FRONT-RUNNER: Meryl Streep's Julie and Julia performance is already an Oscar frontrunner, and a win here won't hurt.

DARK HORSE: Marion Cotillard isn't really a lead in Nine, but she delivers strong work anyway.

Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture (Musical or Comedy)

Matt Damon, The Informant

Daniel Day Lewis, Nine

Robert Downey Jr., Sherlock Holmes

Joseph Gordon Levitt, (500) Days of Summer

Michael Stuhlbarg, A Serious Man

FRONT-RUNNER: Oscar won't reward Daniel Day-Lewis for Nine, but I have a feeling the Globes will be more partial to his problematic performance.

DARK HORSE: Michael Stuhlbarg is the only one of these actors that can even claim to be an Oscar longshot (since The Informant never really caught fire for Matt Damon), but the Globes favor celebrity. Robert Downey Jr. could win simply for showing up.

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Comments

  • Furious D says:

    I predict that at the first commercial break Ricky Gervais will be replaced by Jay Leno.

  • JM says:

    Wow, this post reminds me what a lackluster year it's really been.
    Disagreements:
    -Hurt Locker for Drama or Precious (this year's Crash/Slumdog?)
    -(500) Days of Summer instead of Nine - one has gotten critical praise from all corners the other has been trashed. Take a guess which? Then again, f@#$ing Chicago won in '02 so who knows.
    - Would like to see Mulligan win, she seemed quite nice on Ferguson's show the other night but I feel Ms. Sidibe might have a better chance. Having refused to see The Blind Side I can only guess at Sandy's performance but...well, it's Sandy. She's great and all but even she acknowledges being happy just to act a bit, make some money, and entertain people, and not stretching herself too far.
    And how the hell did a Nancy Meyers movie get nominated for anything?

  • Luke says:

    Avatar isn't going to win any awards except for technical ones. UP in the Air will win best picture Drama.

  • stolidog says:

    I'm going out on a limb and putting 500 days of summer and joseph gordon levitt for the win in their respective catagories...a fresh change from the usual.

  • JM says:

    Would love for Mr Gordon-Levitt to get a bit of well-deserved award recognition this year. Too bad he was in GI Joe which might be held against him...

  • Mav says:

    "Avatar" deserves the Best Picture award over overrated films like "Up in the Air" I thought UITA was a real snoozer. Comedy/Musical should go to "500 Days of Summer" while "Nine" shouldn't be nominated, because it is NO "Chicago". I don't know, I thought "The Hurt Locker" was a good, tense film, but not the Best Picture that every critc is claiming it to be. "Inglorious Basterds" was a major surpirse, because it's the first film by QT that I actually liked.

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