Oscar Index: Your Guess is As Good As Mine

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The Leading 5:

1. Octavia Spencer, The Help

2. Bérénice Bejo, The Artist

3. Shailene Woodley, The Descendants

4. Jessica Chastain, The Help

5. Janet McTeer, Albert Nobbs

Outsiders: Melissa McCarthy, Bridesmaids; Vanessa Redgrave, Coriolanus; Sandra Bullock, Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close; Jessica Chastain, Take Shelter; Jessica Chastain, The Tree of Life; Keira Knightley, A Dangerous Method; Judy Greer, The Descendants

What a turn for McCarthy, who may very well ride the Bridesmaids wave all the way to the Kodak Theater and thus become the first ever actress to earn an Academy Award nomination for a performance in which she violently shits into a sink. It's a new era, you know? We can't have the likes of Redgrave muttering 400-year-old dialogue like some septuagenarian Oscar-night shoo-in, yammering so dynamically and movingly on such subjects as power and pride and mortality and vengeance and whatever else Shakespeare was on about. Please! I'm not bitter!

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The Leading 5:

1. Christopher Plummer, Beginners

2. Albert Brooks, Drive

3. Jonah Hill, Moneyball

4. Nick Nolte, Warrior

5. Kenneth Branagh, My Week With Marilyn

Outsiders: Max von Sydow, Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close; Ben Kingsley, Hugo; Corey Stoll, Midnight in Paris; Patton Oswalt, Young Adult; Andy Serkis, Rise of the Planet of the Apes; Kevin Spacey, Margin Call

We can talk all day about if and/or how Von Sydow's continued snubs reflect poorly on his Oscar chances, or Nolte and Branagh storming back into contention via critics and SAG, or Serkis's incrementally increasing foothold in the Supporting Actor conversation, or -- of course -- the seemingly monumental oversight of Albert Brooks in today's SAG Award nominations. (I mean, Armie Hammer?) But rather than waste all that breath, I'd rather just invoke the last word as stated by Drive's awesome, awesome awards consultant, who urged us all to just calm the fuck down: "Thank you for all of your shout-outs to Albert Brooks on Twitter and in your analyses of the SAG nominations in regards to his not being recognized today, but we remain confident that the Supporting Actor race still boils down to a two-man showdown between Albert and Christopher Plummer." Anything you say! Just don't hurt me.

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Comments

  • The WInchester says:

    Having recently seen The Payne, I would love nothing more for Clooney to take home the gold man, but I fear he's a little too subdued and subtle for most tastes, as he's not drinking anybody's milkshake nor going full retard to attract the attention and acclaim he deserves.
    The same description goes for Payne's direction.

  • Lily says:

    Is this a Girl with the Dragon Tattoo review or an Oscar column? jesus.

  • AS says:

    I'm not as optimistic as many when it comes to Drive's chances. I still think it's a long shot in every other category other than Sup Act.
    I think I'm beginning to revise my disgust when it comes to "overlooked films." It does take away the "cool factor." I'm actually glad Dragon Tattoo & Drive won't be nominated.

  • S.T. VanAirsdale says:

    Or stuttering! But hey, he's Clooney. Pure charm (and having also directed a very well-acted movie this year) can overcome!

  • S.T. VanAirsdale says:

    Definitely an Oscar column. Mara has one of the week's most-discussed films, featuring one of the week's most-discussed performances. Check the links and context; it's all there. If this is the only attention that _Dragon Tattoo_ gets in the major categories, then why wouldn't I cover that at length the same way I've covered _The Artist_, _The Descendants_, _War Horse_ and others?

  • S.T. VanAirsdale says:

    Aw, come on, AS! Where's the heart? The faith? You wanted this, you got it.

  • AS says:

    The death of hope began in 1968 when Oliver won Best Picture over 2001: A Space Odyssey. It's all been downhill since then.

  • The WInchester says:

    But really, you can think of that moment as the birth of all the Oscar bloggers, whose "But THAT movie should have really won" discussion pre Al Gore system of tubes.

  • Skippy says:

    The phrase "roving gang of swag goblins" makes me really happy.