Oscar Index: Hurricane Meryl Makes Landfall; Artist, Hugo Surge Toward Top

The Leading 5:

1. Meryl Streep, The Iron Lady

2. Viola Davis, The Help

3. Michelle Williams, My Week With Marilyn

4. Glenn Close, Albert Nobbs

5. Tilda Swinton, We Need to Talk About Kevin

Outsiders: Charlize Theron, Young Adult; Elizabeth Olsen, Martha Marcy May Marlene; Rooney Mara, The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo; Felicity Jones, Like Crazy; Kirsten Dunst, Melancholia; Keira Knightley, A Dangerous Method

The L.A. Oscar elite have finally seen The Iron Lady, and so we encountered our first rolling pro-Streep OMGasm among guys like Dave Karger, Gregory Ellwood, Pete Hammond, Jeffrey Wells and, to a lesser degree, Kristopher Tapley -- the latter of whose reservations resonated the loudest in the weedy wilderness of Streep's Oscar past: "She's so good that a lived-in portrayal like this has come to be expected, but then again, she's kind of hampered from really taking off with the performance due to inherent limitations in what the screenplay gives her."

Sasha Stone adds notably:

The other problem with The Iron Lady is that the movie keeps distracting us from Streep. She is the reason to watch and yet the camera cuts away from her during her best scenes and makes us watch things we don't really care about, like Thatcher as a youngin'. That makes it a somewhat confused biopic - it doesn't really seem to know how it feels about Thatcher, therefore it doesn't really take a strong point of view. On the other hand, there's Streep to marvel at -- and one cannot deny the power of her intelligence as an actress and her ability to completely alter herself to play another person. It's truly astonishing. She and Glenn Close are the two vets this year who disappear in their roles and unearth characters who are brilliantly played but not exactly the kind you warm to. And that, in the end, might prove difficult where the Oscars are concerned.

So ultimately, the cumulative impact was enough to lift Streep back to the top of the Index, where she will likely remain until the critics and/or guilds knock her off in their awards votes --if at all.

Then there's Williams, Streep's Weinstein stablemate who at least has the luxury of a film in theaters this week, experienced a substantial boost in a similar context: "There are some movies that have little or nothing to recommend them, except as a frame for a performance," wrote Stephanie Zacharek in her review. "My Week with Marilyn is that kind of movie." And she loved Williams's performance. Basically, the mediocrity of the films around Streep and Williams (and even Close) could backfire when it comes to fighting off Davis, whose own film has nearly $200 million worldwide in the bank, Oprah Winfrey's own new Oscar imprimatur and the advantage of its likely Best Picture contention going for it. To the latter point, Sasha Stone shows some pretty compelling work, finally concluding that since 1970, 27 out of 41 Best Actress winners had a role in a Best Picture nominee. And with the Weinstein Company's Best Picture eggs loaded snugly in its Artist basket, it's not too hard to see the historical odds still tilting in Davis's favor.

And did I mention Swinton is hitting the trail for We Need to Talk About Kevin? And hitting it hard? Going head-to-head with Young Adult on Dec. 9 -- even in a limited one-week qualifying release -- I still like her to soundly edge out Theron.

The Leading 5:

1. [tie] George Clooney, The Descendants

1. [tie] Jean Dujardin, The Artist

3. Michael Fassbender, Shame

4. Brad Pitt, Moneyball

5. Leonardo DiCaprio, J. Edgar

Outsiders: Gary Oldman, Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy; Michael Shannon, Take Shelter; Woody Harrelson, Rampart; Demian Bichir, A Better Life; Ralph Fiennes, Coriolanus; Andy Serkis, Rise of the Planet of the Apes; Ryan Gosling, The Ides of March

I can't bear to spend so much as another minute writing further about The Descendants and The Artist, but honestly, I shouldn't have to: The texture of the race described previously applies appropriately enough to the Actor race as well -- i.e. profile vs. obscurity, degree of difficulty vs. sincerity, etc. etc. We know the Academy is totally fine voting for foreign stars who come out of nowhere with the performance of a lifetime and/or a passion for Oscar, so let's just call it even at the top for now and move on with our lives.

Meanwhile, Fassbender has proven an effective ambassador for Shame -- even with one Dangerous Method tied behind his back. The only thing left to determine is if the actors' branch wants to tie up two Best Actor nominations with outsiders like him and Dujardin -- particularly with respected vets like Oldman and Harrelson on the bubble. A lot will clear up after next weekend when both Shame and The Artist are in theaters, but I'd still say those are the new guys' noms to lose.

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