Oscar Index: War Horse, We Have a Problem
Welcome to week six of Oscar Index, your regular reading of buzz, hype, speculation and crippling myopia in and around the 2011-12 awards beat. This installment brings some rather momentous determinations from the wonks at Movieline's Institute for the Advanced Study of Kudos Forensics -- let's get right to them!
[Click the graphs for full-size images.]
The Leading 10:
1. The Descendants
2. The Artist
3. War Horse
4. The Help
5. Midnight in Paris
6. Moneyball
7. J. Edgar
8. The Ides of March
9. My Week With Marilyn
10. Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
Outsiders: The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo, The Adventures of Tintin: The Secret of the Unicorn, Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy, The Tree of Life, Hugo, Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows
Gasp! After a month of sight-unseen supremacy, Steven Spielberg's War Horse has officially eased into trot mode behind the muscular fall-festival favorites The Descendants and The Artist. At least that's the sense of the punditocracy everywhere from Gold Derby -- where Alexander Payne's dramedy inched ahead of the equine Spielberggernaut -- to THR and In Contention, where Michel Hazanavicius's silent triumph has either come even with or surpassed War Horse in the Picture race.
It's not all good for the new front-runners; after all, no one wants to peak too soon, and hearing guys like Tom O'Neil and Scott Feinberg debate the mechanics of a Descendants/Artist showdown (and for the likes of longtime Horse-whipper Jeff Wells to spotlight it) suggests War Horse and DreamWorks' happy retreat (for now) into the Oscar shadows while the other heavyweights get all gladiatorial on each other for the awards gods. But when you hear about stuff like the Descendants' dynamite SAG/BAFTA screening last week, or witness its early awards-profile boost with the recent Gotham Awards nominations -- both coming nearly a month before the next wave of acclaim rolls in around its Nov. 18 release date -- Fox Searchlight's strategy looks fairly unassailable at this point. Add to that the advancement of the New York Film Critics Circle's awards announcement to Nov. 28 -- the first in the nation -- and you've got an early tone-setter tailor-made for Payne, George Clooney and Co. to enter December as the film to beat.
The week's other big momentum was seen with The Help (which one Academy member reportedly told Steve Pond would not only be nominated for Best Picture, but would win) and Midnight in Paris (which earned the highest scores -- alongside The Descendants and The Artist, natch -- in David Poland's first Oscar chart of the season). Both remain virtual sure things in the nomination phase, but the continuing chatter about their growing Academy constituencies is enough to make even a horse blush. Finally! Here's to the challengers!
Also, earlier this week I heard from an awards-campaign consultant who seemed fairly certain that Hugo has what it takes to garner the requisite 5 percent of first-place votes for a Best Picture nomination. Its (alleged) secret weapon: The branch stewardship of much-respected Martin Scorsese collaborators like cinematographer Robert Richardson, editor Thelma Schoonmaker, costume designer Sandy Powell and others. "All you really need are 300 votes," this consultant explained. Well, that and what many are predicting to be a blockbuster holiday turnout. Instinct tells me that Dragon Tattoo and Extremely Loud in particular will keep sharper edges in the Academy proper, but as noted previously, this isn't about my instinct. So! For what it's worth, etc., etc.
The Leading 5:
1. Alexander Payne, The Descendants
2. Michel Hazanavicius, The Artist
3. Steven Spielberg, War Horse
4. Clint Eastwood, J. Edgar
5. David Fincher, The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo
Outsiders: Stephen Daldry, Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close; George Clooney, The Ides of March; Woody Allen, Midnight in Paris; Bennett Miller, Moneyball; Tomas Alfredson, Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy; Tate Taylor, The Help
Not much more to add here that doesn't simply reflect what's above, other than -- and here we go back to instinct again -- I can totally see Woody Allen creeping in and taking Eastwood, Fincher or Daldry's spot. And as Ides fades into oblivion, this is likely the last week you'll see Clooney's smiling face on the Index.
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Comments
The Artist has no chance in my opinion. I just can't see the Academy giving a film that has zero box office potential Director/Picture. Idk, but I think you'd be foolish to put any money down on The Artist. I really want to see The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo jump up onto that list. I'm also hating the Oscar buzz surrounding Woody Allen's Midnight in Paris. Don't get me wrong, I LOVE Woody Allen, but M in P was wayyyyy overrated and it's definitely not one of his best. Vicky, Cristina, Barcelona & Match Point were miles ahead of M in P and I don't recall Allen getting the Picture/Director nom for either one of those films. But anyway, as we all know Drive = Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor, Best Supporting Actor, Best Original Score, Best Editing, Best Scorpion Jacket, Best Hammer, Best Face Smash, Best Fork Stabbing.
Why have you totally ignored Jolie's "In the Land of Blood and Honey"??? The trailer was fantastic.
Where's the love for W.E.?
You crack me up.
Streep will blow away the competition when she debuts on 11/19/11 in The Iron Lady (special screening)....
I try, sir.
In all seriousness, though, what happened to the collective online pants-creaming for Andy Serkis no less than two months ago? Has that ship sailed entirely? Is it too futile to even try? Because I will say again, he gave the best performance thus far all year.
The Artist will do well. Watch.
It's funny watching the pundits chase their tails. The Artist has been around for five months now on the festival circuit and they couldn't rely on their own instincts to place it and its main players in the higher ranks. As if there was so much potential out there to overshadow them.
And as far as Felicity Jones, Kirsten Dunst and Emma Stone, they've already lost their outsider chance. They're done. And Michelle Williams should still be in top two, if not the top spot. Again, prognosticators not knowing what they're doing.
I was hoping that Brad Pitt would have a shot at Best Supporting Actor for The Tree of Life.
I am very disappointed about the lack of appreciate for Tree of Life. Hopefully the critics groups have something to say about it - Brad Pitt, Hunter McCracken and Jessica Chastain were all great. It's a piece of art that definitely deserves a directors, cinematography and editing nomination. It should be Best Picture but the world doesn't work that way.
I'm just really hoping, assuming the oscar ship has sailed for it, that critics at least come out and give it something.
It's not unlikely at all that it'll take NYFCC; they love Malick.
And it could definitely return to the Best Picture conversation if/when Fox Searchlight decides on a re-release, if only because history has shown that commercially strong Palme d'Or winners (e.g. Taxi Driver, Apocalypse Now, Pulp Fiction) almost always receive nominations (if not wins).
I'm not sure which prognosticators you're reading. _The Artist_ has pretty much top-three since May; it needed the recent TIFF/NYFF tandem to bolster it with critics/pundits who hadn't seen it at Cannes. That's what's reflected here this week and last, all linked up for your reference.
Personally agreed that Jones/Dunst/Stone are done, but this isn't my personal predictions column, alas. I'm just saying some people are still talking about them. When they stop, they'll fall off.
And why should Williams be in the top two? Be specific.
I dunno! I never saw that movie myself, so I don't have an opinion about Serkis's work. But I think it's fairly safe to say that as long as the likes of Dujardin and Clooney and Pitt and Fassbender are giving flesh-and-blood screen performances unshielded by CGI, the actor's branch will stick with what it knows -- what it's comfortable with. I'm not saying it's right or even permanent, but it's par for the course in 2011.
Because it has about as much awards-beat momentum as _Bucky Larson_. Actually, even less; at least _BL_ is front-running for a Razzie.
Thanks for the comments. Williams was absolutely amazing. She does everything she needs to with the part. It's difficult to view her performance as just a nomination. She is a contender for the big prize. Only the mediocrity of the quality of the film that holds her performance casts any doubts on her chances at winning. But, if the movie is a hit, that will render that point moot. Supposedly, the reviews of her performance and the film have been mixed. Not sure what some of her naysayers expected out of her. Maybe she floored me because the trailer had set the bar so low.
And Toronto has been finished now for over five weeks. It struck me that a lot of pundits (sorry for being ambiguous; I don't really pay attention to the names) did not firmly commit to The Artist being a no-brainer; it seems like it has been waffling up until now. After Toronto, there was a serious and obvious lag before people placed Berenice Bejo in the top five, as well as Jean Dujardin and Michael Hazanavicius as high as he should have been. Perhaps a lot of the big names don't attend Toronto. But, if someone is going to be making educated guesses in this game, it seems like the given thing to do.
As far as specifics about her performance, rather than offer a empty, hollow mimicry-laden rendition of Monroe (which Williams probably couldn't have pulled off anyway, because she is the kind of actress who works from the inside out), she goes for the heart of the character. Monroe was an actress who just wanted to be taken seriously. On the surface, she was also kind of airy dipstick who liberally lived in the moment. Williams full realizes these traits while incorporated a subtle, nuanced impersonation into her work. The film isn't very heart-breaking, nor intends to be, so it lacks the emotional wallop that the AMPAS like to lap up. Still, her performance is deft and impressive.
Sight seen, this is a race between Davis and Williams. If Streep completes at least a base hit, it will be a three way race. Out of all the films out so for, the critics have been the least kind to Glenn Close, a lot of them insisting her costar Janet McTeer outshines her. Perhaps I'm a fool for listening to them on this point (I haven't seen Albert Nobbs), but I weigh that against her chances at a win.
Things aren't as complicated as they make them out to me. Felicity Jones was awesome, but her material lacks the gravitas she would need to sneak into the category. The film certainly doesn't look like it's going to be a runaway hit. Kirsten Dunst was great, but the movie, as sumptuous as it was, was taxing at times and will make very little money at the box-office. Her character is too depressed and abstract to nab a nomination. And the field is too crowded for Emma Stone to be in the conversation anymore. I don't really understand why the pundits continue to talk about some of the aforementioned actresses. And I'm not sure why we listen to these people who keep them in the conversation, because they obviously don't know what they're talking about in these instances.
Thanks for the notes. We're in agreement about the Dunst/Stone/Jones/Close stuff, 100 percent, though I'd hasten to add that until _Nobbs_ is released and McTeer really gets the punditocracy/critics' awards push, she'll languish on the outside looking in while Close gets the "she's due" garbage vote.
We're also mostly in agreement about Williams, who was _great_ for all the reasons you specify. But greatness isn't a valid reason why she should be in second place, because as you also allude to, the Oscars are not and have never been a meritocracy. A nomination is one thing; SAG and the critics can push her into the final five. But it's going to take some serious conjuring from the Weinsteins to imbue her role with the sense of triumph -- the "wallop" -- she needs to get over on Davis come February. And considering they've got Streep waiting in the wings, right now I'd guess they just settle for the Williams nomination and rally behind the likelier emotional favorite in Streep. If they see _The Iron Lady_ going wrong with the critics in particular, _then_ you'll see the Williams campaign launch in earnest, and you'll get the two-woman race you have in mind.
Either way, it's fun to have something to talk about for a change! The last couple weeks I thought I wouldn't make it. I mean, I still might not, but for now I'm encouraged.
All good points, but I'll stick with Williams in the #1 spot for now.
It has no "awards beat momentum" because these people won't give it any. They have their anointed ones. Even when some of them haven't been seen by a single person. Jolie's film has been ignored since day one, presumably BECAUSE it's Jolie. If it was any other director they'd have been screaming OSCAR for months now. And especially after that trailer. Double standard.
Actually, it has no awards-beat momentum because the distributor, FilmDistrict, has kept it hidden away from festivals -- where many of these smaller films found their initial traction among awards pundits and tastemakers -- and hasn't indicated in any way, shape or form that it intends to campaign Jolie or the movie for anything. This isn't _War Horse_ or _J. Edgar_ we're talking about, where you can smell the awards bait miles away. This is an independently produced film with a tough subject and no stars to speak of in front of the camera. Jolie isn't enough; it needs a push.
None of this is to say the movie won't be good. It could wind up being the best-reviewed film of 2011! Nevertheless, the Oscar needle doesn't move itself.
I suppose that's all true. Film District has also pretty much pretended the movie doesn't exist as far as PR goes. They need to get off their asses and push it, because from what I have heard, there have been a few "secret" screenings, and indications are that it's a strong film. I hope they don't abandon it. She should have brought it to Harvey instead.
Whatever happened to Rachel Weisz in "The Whistleblower"? If I remember correctly, you guys pushed her a good deal back in August regarding her awards chances. I doubt she'll get a nomination, but she's AT LEAST outsider status at this point in the game.
I am the only person who has an interest in Weisz receiving awards consideration, and alas, this isn't the place where I bloviate about what I want. (What other people want, though? Bloviate away!) Her distributor isn't pushing her, the awards beat has moved on... That's pretty much the end of that. Can't win 'em all!
Totally fair points! Take at least some comfort in the fact that Bob Berney, who runs FilmDistrict, is one of the foremost Oscar strategists out there (he singlehandedly maneuvered Cotillard and Theron to their Best Actress wins). I generally tend to give him the benefit of the doubt; he might be working behind the scenes, keeping this on the radar with voters while avoiding media overexposure so early in the race. We'll see!
Thanks for the response! I saw the film back in August, and I thought Weisz turned in one hell of a performance. So once I saw the articles on here about her awards-season chances I became quite elated. Alas, I haven't heard any further buzz, so her absence here does make more sense now.
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