Oscar Index: War Horse, We Have a Problem

The Leading 5:

1. Octavia Spencer, The Help

2. Bérénice Bejo, The Artist

3. Shailene Woodley, The Descendants

4. Vanessa Redgrave, Coriolanus

5. Sandra Bullock, Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close

Outsiders: Jessica Chastain, Take Shelter; Melissa McCarthy, Bridesmaids; Jessica Chastain, The Help; Janet McTeer, Albert Nobbs; Judi Dench, J. Edgar; Keira Knightley, A Dangerous Method; Mia Wasikowska, Albert Nobbs; Emily Watson, War Horse; Marion Cotillard, Midnight in Paris

Woodley rose with the Descendants bump, but ultimately this hardware seems to remain Spencer's to lose. Why? Here's Sasha Stone again, pretty persuasively distilling why Spencer has become the front-runner she is:

Her supporting turn in the film is one of the reasons The Help did well, money-wise, but also why it's being talked about an "Oscar contender," which I guess just means it's good enough to be "worthy" of their votes. One has to be specific about these things, to be clear about what the Oscars themselves really mean. But that is neither here nor there - the point is, Spencer bursts forth from The Help - and that is no easy feat with the kinds of supporting actresses in the film with her.

So, for those keeping score at home: (Box office + indelibility) x co-stars outshone = Oscar likelihood. Or something. Someone check my work.

The Leading 5:

1. Christopher Plummer, Beginners

2. Max von Sydow, Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close

3. Kenneth Branagh, My Week With Marilyn

4. Albert Brooks, Drive

5. Nick Nolte, Warrior

Outsiders: Jonah Hill, Moneyball; Jim Broadbent, The Iron Lady; Corey Stoll, Midnight in Paris; Viggo Mortensen, A Dangerous Method; John C. Reilly, Carnage; Philip Seymour Hoffman, Moneyball; Armie Hammer, J. Edgar; Tom Hanks, Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close

Sigh. Another week, another turn at the top for Plummer and von Sydow. Nolte and Stoll earned worthwhile boosts as well -- and not likely their last. Still no Uggie, alas. Did I mention sigh? We've got time.

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