Oscar Index: War Horse, We Have a Problem

The Leading 5:

1. Viola Davis, The Help

2. Meryl Streep, The Iron Lady

3. Glenn Close, Albert Nobbs

4. Michelle Williams, My Week With Marilyn

5. Elizabeth Olsen, Martha Marcy May Marlene

Outsiders: Charlize Theron, Young Adult; Tilda Swinton, We Need to Talk About Kevin; Olivia Colman, Tyrannosaur; Felicity Jones, Like Crazy; Rooney Mara, The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo; Keira Knightley, A Dangerous Method; Emma Stone, The Help; Kirsten Dunst, Melancholia

Much like The Descendants and The Artist enjoyed organic boosts from viewers, critics and pundits alike, Viola Davis is surging into November on a 20-foot wave of goodwill. Perhaps right on cue, the awards cognoscenti are turning away from Meryl Streep in favor of Davis's proven performance and peerless grace -- particularly as evinced by her recent acceptance speech at the Women in Hollywood honors [via Awards Daily]:

Also, I hope you enjoyed your week of upstart Olivia Colman, because now we're onto the week of upstart Elizabeth Olsen. Hell -- the year of upstart Elizabeth Olsen. At long last, Martha Marcy May Marlene opened gangbusters in limited release, and the 22-year-old actress's profile was right where it needed to be with critics (including our own Stephanie Zacharek) and prognosticators alike.

Felicity Jones may be next this week for her role in Like Crazy, which Paramount hasn't shepherded through awards season nearly as expertly as Searchlight's guiding Martha, but still. "[I]n such a competitive year, it's hard to imagine her getting in there," writes Sasha Stone, adding that while Jones belongs in the conversation, "[t]he film has yet to be reviewed by the major critics, so I'll wait before assessing her Oscar chances." Fair enough, but don't anybody go thinking of this as the kind of year when newcomers Carey Mulligan and Gabourey Sidibe both sneaked into the running for their own Sundance darlings -- not with the veteran power moves still to come from Streep, Close, Theron and Williams. Speaking of the latter, leave Busy Phillipps home this time. It's for the best.

The Leading 5:

1. George Clooney, The Descendants

2. Jean Dujardin, The Artist

3. Brad Pitt, Moneyball

4. Michael Fassbender, Shame

5. Leonardo DiCaprio, J. Edgar

Outsiders: Michael Shannon, Take Shelter; Gary Oldman, Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy; Woody Harrelson, Rampart; Damian Bechir, A Better Life; Ryan Gosling, The Ides of March; Michael Fassbender, A Dangerous Method

Notwithstanding what Harvey Weinstein did back in 1998 with Roberto Benigni, I don't know how long Dujardin can hang on this high up amid the Pitts and DiCaprios of the world (and their campaigns). But if, as I have, you've chortled in bemusement every time those ridiculous J. Edgar spots appear on TV, or if you nod in sad agreement while reading David Poland's estimation of Moneyball ("It was really the first big awards movie to open this year. And he was perfect. But will it linger?), then the legitimacy of Dujardin's chances attains a certain, sudden clarity.

Also: The initial headscratching that met Fassbender's high Oscar Index ranking has given way to the general acceptance of his own contention -- particularly with Searchlight this week accepting Shame's NC-17 rating with honor and angling immediately for Academy respect. Who can blame them? It's the only way to make a dime with this film now. As such, expect this to be the hungriest campaign of the next month, with critics in both NYC and L.A. and the secretive National Board of Review targeted for Fassbender wins. One out of three, and he's an Oscar outsider. Two out of three, he's a likely nominee. Three out of three -- which won't happen, but still (after all, someone will want Clooney at their party) -- and the son of a bitch just might pull out a win. Unless he's this year's Social Network, but! One thing at a time.

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