Oscar Index: Is It February Yet?

The Leading 5:

1. Meryl Streep, The Iron Lady

2. Viola Davis, The Help

3. Michelle Williams, My Week With Marilyn

4. Glenn Close, Albert Nobbs

5. Charlize Theron, Young Adult

Outsiders: Tilda Swinton, We Need to Talk About Kevin; Olivia Colman, Tyrannosaur; Elizabeth Olsen, Martha Marcy May Marlene; Rooney Mara, The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo; Felicity Jones, Like Crazy; Keira Knightley, A Dangerous Method; Emma Stone, The Help; Kirsten Dunst, Melancholia

Now this is interesting: Tyrannosaur actress Olivia Colman, whose much-acclaimed performance has been hovering just beyond the bubble for weeks, has landed squarely on its surface this week. Led by Hollywood Elsewhere's Jeffrey Wells in what is, in all likelihood, the first grassroots awards campaign by a critic on behalf of a film and/or performer, Colman's profile has risen to top-five at Gold Derby, while Sasha Stone and Guy Lodge both take a good, long look at Colman's odds for the hyper-competitive Actress race.

Keeping last year's ascent of Jacki Weaver in mind, I love hearing about this kind of thing -- though the idea of Wells raising money for Colman's campaign via PayPal makes me wonder if perhaps more elegant Kickstarter campaigns may be the future of DIY, Melissa Leo-style awards stumping. Imagine someone's team recognizing a groundswell of support for his/her film and offering incentives to fans for contributing to an awards run -- an autographed DVD here, a telephoned thank-you there, lunch with the beneficiary or awards-night chaperone services down the line... The possibilities are endless. They're also totally lame considering that organizing press and industry screenings are distributor Strand Releasing's job. Oh well! Welcome to the 21st century. They can't all be Fox Searchlight or the Weinstein Company.

Elsewhere in the category, Viola Davis earned continued backing from folks like Nathaniel Rogers ("The only sure thing given hit status and a well-loved star turn. Even people who don't like the movie think she elevates it"), while the treacly, Oscar-groveling trailer for Albert Nobbs didn't do anything at all to mitigate that film's lukewarm fall-festival reception. Nathaniel Rogers again, making the definitive point to date about Close's chances: "[I]t's all about The Career. Will enough AMPAS voters feel nostalgic for a performer they absurdly passed over for two iconic star turns?"

The Leading 5:

1. George Clooney, The Descendants

2. Brad Pitt, Moneyball

3. Jean Dujardin, The Artist

4. Leonardo DiCaprio, J. Edgar

5. Michael Fassbender, Shame

Outsiders: Michael Shannon, Take Shelter; Gary Oldman, Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy; Woody Harrelson, Rampart; Tom Hanks, Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close; Ryan Gosling, The Ides of March; Michael Fassbender, A Dangerous Method; Damian Bechir, A Better Life

Dujardin and co-star Bérénice Bejo's corresponding festival bumps aside, the bulk of the Best Actor jockeying took place on the category's bubble. Shannon enjoyed a significant boost thanks to continued critical support and, more importantly, his sublime Take Shelter being the third awards screener out of the gate this season. Woody Harrelson crept back into the discussion as well, while a rep for _Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close _ alerted me this morning to Hanks being a Supporting candidate for the film, not Lead. Fine! So he can lose in that category to certain eventual winner Christopher Plummer rather than this category's certain eventual winner George Clooney. Either way is fine by me.

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