And They're (Almost) Off: The Preliminary 2011-12 Oscar Index
[Clockwise from top right]
· Octavia Spencer, The Help
· Shailene Woodley, The Descendants
· Mia Wasikowska, Albert Nobbs
· Sandra Bullock, Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
· Vanessa Redgrave, Coriolanus
· Andrea Riseborough, W.E.
· Keira Knightley, A Dangerous Method
· Jessica Chastain, Take Shelter
Spencer and Redgrave have the earliest momentum in a weak year, thanks to strong showings in theaters and the Berlin Film Festival, respectively. "If Davis gets out of the way in the Supporting category, Spencer is the front-runner to win -- yes, win -- at this early point in the derby," Tom O'Neil argued in a recent post published at Gold Derby. "She not only gives a heart-lifting turn on film, she gets to wreak devilish revenge on her tormentor." Redgrave, meanwhile, "gives one of 'those' performances," notes In Contention contributor Guy Lodge, "an Olympian masterclass in classical acting that conjures spontaneous emotional fire upon a bed of immaculate technique."
The other premium contender seems to be Keira Knightley, who gets hot and bothered for Freud (and David Cronenberg) in Method. Word on the street has Woodley and Riseborough as the category's primary wild cards, while Chastain delivers her best performance of a very, very busy year in Take Shelter. The Academy may make her wait for recognition -- and we all know now how reluctant she is to go searching for it -- but can anyone legitimately argue that her work hasn't earned it?
[Clockwise from top right]
· Philip Seymour Hoffman, Moneyball
· Albert Brooks, Drive
· John C. Reilly, Carnage
· Christopher Plummer, Beginners
· Armie Hammer, J. Edgar
· Ryan Gosling, The Ides of March
· Jim Broadbent, The Iron Lady
· Kenneth Branagh, My Week With Marilyn
· Nick Nolte, Warrior
· Jonah Hill, Moneyball
· Viggo Mortensen, A Dangerous Method
Barring some unimpeachable groundswell of public adulation for Nolte and/or Brooks, it seems the beloved Plummer is the early odds-on favorite to finally win his first Oscar at age 82. But that doesn't make the competition for a nomination any less volatile, with both Reilly and Branagh "due" and Gosling possibly dropping for a relatively sure supporting nod in Ides -- unless Sony campaigns for his co-star Hoffman there instead, in which case Hoffman's performance in the studio stablemate Moneyball may have to take a back seat on the bandwagon to Jonah Hill. In any case it looks like Social Network alum Hammer might once again be on the the outside looking in despite high-profile work in premium-grade Oscar bait.
Should be worth watching! Drop back by Movieline on Sept. 21 to see where everyone stands for the official launch of the 2011-12 Oscar Index.
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Comments
I hope Marion Cotilliard is in the mix for Midnight in Paris.
i hope marion cotilliard is in the supporting actress mix for midnight in paris
If I have to look at Glenn Close's face from that Albert Nobbs movie for the next 6 months I might poke my own eyes out.
Other possible contenders:
Jennifer Lawrence: Like Crazy
Tom Hardy: Warriors/Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
Stellan Skasgard: The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Alan Rickman: Harry Potter (I want to believe! but alas, probably not, unless the new members of the academy are potterheads)
Carnage (best picture)
Mia Wasikowska: Jane Eyre
Angelina Jolie: The Land of Blood and Honey (director)
Mel Gibson: The Beaver
my bad, tom hardy already up there for warrior
I would think that Ralph Fiennes is a contender as both best actor and best director for Coriolanus
Thank you.
She's really giving off a Robin Williams vibe in most of the pics I've seen as well. And not the good Robin Williams, either.
_Carnage_ is a bit underrepresented in the early Oscar buzz; we'll see if Venice changes that. I just think Reilly's the obvious marketing point here as the only non-winner in the cast. All four sure would look good on a DVD jacket! If they even have those in two or three years.
And Mel Gibson! Very funny!
For Carnage, I sense that the Academy awards may follow suit with the Tony's, and not only nominate the picture, but nominate all four, although I agree that, like the Tony's, only 1 will one, and my money is on reilly.
As for Mel Gibson, forget his personal hangups (and the failure of the film financially), Gibson gave the performance of his life there, and he does has famous friends in the academy to vote for him. Its not all serious there; this is the group who shunned Abby Cornish from a well deserved nomination partly because of her status as the girl who had an affair with Reese Witherspoons husband (my point is that it can get very personal in the academy)
What about Kirsten Dunst for Melancholia? Despite the Lars von Trier nazi debacle the movie got a lot of buzz here at Europe at least and Dunst's performance was mostly high praised.
If "Martha Marcy May Marlene" really is the "Winter's Bone" of this year, I wouldn't be surprised if John Hawkes gets recognized once again.
And the entire cast of "Carnage" are frontrunners for a nomination, with Reilly most likely to win and Winslet or Foster could've had a shot at winning if it weren't for Octavia Spencer.
I would love this! I really hope Dunst has a shot, she's fantastic. It's just too rare that Cannes accolades translate to awards-season momentum. Also, Charlotte Gainsbourg would be great in Supporting as well.
Except that Reilly is heinously miscast in "Carnage." I was stunned when I realized that he was playing the role that Gandolfini did on-stage and not, as I assumed, Christoph Waltz. I'm guessing that a good chunk of the Academy may have seen it on Broadway or when the original cast was in LA at the Ahmanson (as I did) and Reilly may have difficulty being accepted in the part on his own merits. He's seriously going to have to bring his A+++ game to convince me that he's believable in this role.
Tilda Swinton should be included among the potential Best Actress nominees for "We Need to Talk About Kevin." She'll certainly get more votes than someone like Rooney Mara (or Michelle Williams, who will probably be awful as Marilyn Monroe).
Enough with Clooney, Pitt and DiCaprio etc ... snooooze.
Give someone else a chance.
Dominic Cooper in 'The Devils Double' is exceptional. He definitely deserves recognition.
Couldn't agree more about Cooper. Oldman and Fassbender will definitely be in the mix, too, if it makes you feel any better!