Weekend Forecast: Does Harry Potter Have What it Takes to Top Dark Knight?

Do you smell that? No, no -- not the faint, salty vapor of Muggle tears humidifying multiplex lobbies worldwide. I'm talking about those Harry Potter viewers' money, which has already changed hands at record rates with possible history to come. How much can the much-anticipated, much lamented blockbuster earn this weekend? To the Forecast!

[Click the links below for Movieline's reviews and other coverage of this week's films.]

NATIONAL OUTLOOK

· Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2: Legions of fans will weep with bittersweet despair this weekend as their favorite young wizard's exploits come to an end. Meanwhile, I will shed a tear for the last, extraordinary round of box-office bloodsport with the Potter franchise at its center. Warner Bros., whose sluggish Green Lantern performance has somehow managed to overshadow the half-billion (and counting) dollar miracle that is The Hangover Part II, has every intention of surpassing both properties -- not to mention its 2008 opening-weekend record holder The Dark Knight -- combined with Deathly Hallows 2, and honestly? That's a possibility.

Early international receipts indicate a record turnout for opening-day screenings, and more than 5,000 domestic screenings this weekend are reportedly already sold out. (The film debuts Friday on 4,375 screens, the biggest Potter opening ever and the third widest opening of all time.) Deathly Hallows 1 managed a $125 million opening last fall on about 6 percent fewer screens and minus 3-D, which it scrapped late in the post-production process. Factor in summer's historically lighter Saturday-Sunday drop, the goodbye factor, largely favorable reviews and repeat viewings as well, and I don't really see how it does less than $150 million. But while Dark Knight's three-day record of $158.4 million is absolutely within reach, though I'm not ready to call it for that. Nor am I ready to call it for much less. Either way, it's just the beginning. FORECAST: $154.7 million

· Winnie the Pooh: I can't even write about this thing's box-office potential without an overwhelming rush of nostalgia giving way to chills and tears and an irresistible compulsion to empty my wallet at the altar of the Bear of Very Little Brain. "Take it!" I shout at the plush, adorable creatures menacingly encircle my quivering self on the floor of Hundred Acre Wood. "Take everything! Don't hurt me, I can't stand it..." To the extent this says something troubling about me, it says something even more encouraging about the prospects for the beloved character to score an even better weekend than his Disney patrons have in mind. FORECAST: $13.5 million

THE PRIME DESTINATION

It used to be you had to wait five or six years for a new Errol Morris movie to hit theaters. And even with his wild new one Tabloid paring the wait to three years (after his 2008 Abu Ghraib-and-photography meditation Standard Operating Procedure), it still seems too long. Stephanie Zacharek is right about it being a trifle, but it's Morris's trifle, and there nothing like them in the world. And it's got sex, crime, Mormons, media skulduggery and cloned dogs, so, like... Take that, Potter.

REGIONAL OUTLOOK

Not even the art house has much interest in taking on the Boy Wizard, with the limited alternatives of the South African drama Life, Above All, the Pierce Brosnan/Greg Kinnear religi-satire Salvation Boulevard, and the Colin Hanks/Ari Graynor dark comedy Lucky making their ways into theaters.

Your turn! Let's hear your predictions, preferences and the rest below.