Weekend Forecast: Transformers Reign Over Cluttered, Clumsy Competition

Fourth of July Weekend is upon us, which means Movieline's Dept. of Box-Office Forensics has broken out its holiday formulas for our customary run through the week's new releases. And with one already out and two in the offing -- plus a bottleneck of June releases showing off their staying power -- it's a tough one to predict. But let us persevere -- to the Forecast!

NATIONAL FORECAST

· Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen: Despite projections to the contrary, Paramount and DreamWorks hoped for no less than a $200 million opening from its third and possibly final installment of the multi-billion dollar Transformers series, extending the first weekend to nearly six days plus the Fourth of July and banking on a healthy 3-D boost. Then the Tuesday night numbers came in, followed by the Wednesday figures. At this point the studios and their partners at Hasbro may be ready to settle for something in between their lowball estimates and lofty goals -- which would still represent first place by a mile and a significant holiday-weekend haul. But as my colleague Christopher Rosen persuasively pointed out to me when we crunched the numbers earlier today, all the parties involved are no doubt looking back at the admitted train wreck that was Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen and realizing that no matter how much they take moviegoers for granted, fewer and fewer are willing to throw good money after bad -- especially at these prices, and especially with plenty of holiday options to choose from. Still! Big, big money. 4-DAY FORECAST: $110.3 million

· Larry Crowne: On paper, Tom Hanks's writing (with Nia Vardalos)/directing/starring effort with Julia Roberts is a stroke of counterprogramming genius in a week when Transformers, Cars 2, Green Lantern and Super 8 are all scrambling for the general-audience dollar. What more could older audiences crave than Hanks and Roberts reteaming for the story of a sweet, redoubtable middle-aged man who essentially starts his life over after getting canned from his job? A lot more, actually, if the early raft of terrible reviews are to be believed. Not only that, but Bad Teacher is a sleeper to be reckoned with, and Super 8's multi-quadrant legs aren't to be underestimated either. Still, stars is stars -- don't count these two out. 4-DAY FORECAST: $20.2 million

· Monte Carlo: More counterprogramming, but with about a fraction of the cast: Selena Gomez plays a young woman who travels to the titular location when she is mistaken for a British heiress; Leighton Meester and Katie Cassidy co-star. The film is probably best know in Hollywood for being the novel adaptation that Nicole Kidman was going to do before Fox axed the screenwriters and downgraded the original story -- about three Midwestern women who pretend to be wealthy society types to bag some rich guys in Monaco -- to a teen chick flick with tunezzz by Gomez and her band. Holler. (?) Not optimistic, but stranger things than this have found audiences in weekends otherwise clogged with testosterone. 4-DAY FORECAST: $12.1 million

REGIONAL OUTLOOK

It's looking pretty quiet on the art house front, with John C. Reilly and Verge designee Jacob Wysocki teaming up to lead filmmaker Azazel Jacobs's latest, Terri. Meanwhile, a bravura turn by David Hyde Pierce helps salvage the otherwise dizzying, wobbly potboiler The Perfect Host.

How's your weekend looking? Do you expect more fireworks in the streets than at the box office? Predictions if you've got 'em!