Oscar Index: Inception, 'Steak Eaters' on the Move

The Leading 5:

1. Melissa Leo, The Fighter

2. Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit

3. Jacki Weaver, Animal Kingdom

4. Helena Bonham Carter, The King's Speech

5. Mila Kunis, Black Swan

Outsiders: Amy Adams, The Fighter; Dianne Wiest, Rabbit Hole; Barbara Hershey, Black Swan; Sissy Spacek, Get Low

Notes: Speaking of celebrity tweet support, Olivia Wilde was great on Tuesday: "Just watched The Fighter. Sooo should I go drop off Melissa Leo's Oscar right now?" This is pretty much the way 2010-11 is gonna go for Supporting Actress, where the far more intriguing drama can be found in the pile-up for slots two through five. Adams looks increasingly likely to make the cut (and probably surge to the middle of the pack; one Oscar-winning observer cited her as "the great revelation of the movie [...] constantly screwing herself to fighting pitch to take on forces larger than she is"), as do Steinfeld and Carter, the latter of whom continues to benefit from pieces like this one situating King's Speech as the year's likely leading nomination-getter. (Nine? Ten?) That could leave Weaver and Kunis battling for the fifth nomination -- a bloody distributor cage-match-in-the-making between Sony Classics and Fox Searchlight if ever I saw one. My heart goes for Jacki, as always. My brain... enh. Screw the sausage -- this is how Hollywood headaches are made.

The Leading 5:

1. Christian Bale, The Fighter

2. Geoffrey Rush, The King's Speech

3. Andrew Garfield, The Social Network

4. Jeremy Renner, The Town

5. Michael Douglas, Wall Street: Money Never Sleeps

Outsiders: John Hawkes, Winter's Bone; Mark Ruffalo, The Kids Are All Right; Armie Hammer, The Social Network; Ed Harris, The Way Back

Notes: Honestly I should probably swap Ruffalo and Douglas, but all this Steak Eater business has me petrified of any sudden, Kids-friendly moves! And anyway, Christian Bale, everybody. Vegas probably won't even lay odds on this "race" come February.

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