Oscar Index: Inception, 'Steak Eaters' on the Move

The Leading 5:

1. Natalie Portman, Black Swan

2. Annette Bening, The Kids Are All Right

3. Jennifer Lawrence, Winter's Bone

4. Michelle Williams, Blue Valentine

5. Nicole Kidman, Rabbit Hole

Outsiders: Lesley Manville, Another Year; Julianne Moore, The Kids Are All Right; Hilary Swank, Conviction; Tilda Swinton, I Am Love

Notes: So you might have heard Natalie Portman is knocked up. This dominated the Best Actress conversation for a couple days as Oscarphiles scanned history for hints and clues as to pregnancy's awards-season advantages (hint: there are none), but that'll die down by the time you finish reading this sentence. More important, perhaps, is this whole thing about "Steak Eaters" -- the Academy's "red-blooded males (not just American--Europeans and Aussies too), often directors, writers and craftspeople [...] who voted for The Silence of the Lambs, Braveheart, Gladiator, Avatar and yes, Crash over Brokeback Mountain." Oscar campaigners confirmed this subspecies of voter to Anne Thompson, who suggests their predilections could keep The Kids Are All Right out of any serious Best Picture or Director contention.

Fine -- but what does this mean for Best Actress? Let's say the Steak Eaters are real, and they drive at least part of the conversation among actors as well -- the Academy's most populous branch. When surveying Best Actress (we're talking after nominations, now; Annette Bening is all but assured a nod), are they likelier to jump aboard a sexy, scary, male-directed ballet psychodrama with plenty of bloodletting and some hot girl-girl action, or will they indulge the grande-ish dame lead actress in a woman-directed comedy about lesbian parents who unceremoniously discard their sperm donor like a gob of stale gum?

Moreover, are Steak Eaters the ones Harvey was really targeting with his whole Blue Valentine/NC-17 non-troversy? While the ladies swoon at Michelle Williams's tearful Nightline appearance and the candid confessionals ("I wasn't sure if I wanted to act anymore. I wasn't even sure if I could act anymore"), are the fellas all breathless and waiting to reward what one wag hyped as "the sweetest sex ever shown in movies"? In any case, and by all accounts, Williams is on the move, but still... Steak Eaters! These guys! Keep an eye out for them.

The Leading 5:

1. Colin Firth, The King's Speech

2. Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network

3. Mark Wahlberg, The Fighter

4. Ryan Gosling, Blue Valentine

5. James Franco, 127 Hours

Outsiders: Javier Bardem, Biutiful; Jeff Bridges, True Grit; Robert Duvall, Get Low; Paul Giamatti, Barney's Version

Notes: Here we go, Barrrr-dem, here we go! [Clap, clap -- repeat] The praise for Bardem's haunting performance is finally, finally reaching the roiling black surface of the Sea of Hype, where even Biutiful's most skeptical critics can't help but acknowledge the divine work of the actor at its center. He's still on the outside looking in thanks to graceless oversights among the Globes (to be expected), the SAG Award noms (not as expected) and critics associations (unforgivable), not to mention Gosling's own leather-gloved, hater-strengthened surge behind Blue Valentine. And while The Fighter has been a Twitter staple since its first screening last month at AFI Fest, it's tweets like director Greg Mottola's -- "Just watched The Fighter, thought it was really great. Terrific performances all around and cannot praise Mark Wahlberg enough" -- that suggest Wahlberg's firm standing among Academy creatives. It's still Firth's to lose, I think, but hey. Take whatever movement you can get.

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