Oscar Index: When SAG Things Happen to Good Actors
The Leading 5:
1. Melissa Leo, The Fighter
2. Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit
3. Jacki Weaver, Animal Kingdom
4. Helena Bonham Carter, The King's Speech
5. Mila Kunis, Black Swan
Outsiders: Amy Adams, The Fighter; Dianne Wiest, Rabbit Hole; Barbara Hershey, Black Swan; Sissy Spacek, Get Low
Notes: Team Jacki update: I should probably double-check this, but nobody panic about Australia-based, non-SAG-registered Weaver's omission from the SAG contenders. Someone had keep her spot warm ahead of the Oscar nominations, and honestly, it could probably go either way between Kunis and Adams. I'll take Adams as the placeholder if only because I can't see Black Swan going 0-fer in the supporting categories. Steinfeld's profile climbs higher by the hour as True Grit attracts one opening-day blessing after another. We'll see what happens from here. Leo's not fail-safe up there, though.
The Leading 5:
1. Christian Bale, The Fighter
2. Geoffrey Rush, The King's Speech
3. Andrew Garfield, The Social Network
4. Michael Douglas, Wall Street: Money Never Sleeps
5. Jeremy Renner, The Town
Outsiders: John Hawkes, Winter's Bone; Mark Ruffalo, The Kids Are All Right; Armie Hammer, The Social Network; Ed Harris, The Way Back
Notes: Probably the category where SAG wreaked most of its havoc, we've got Renner, Hawkes and Ruffalo (who, I admit, should have been in this company last week) claiming space once thought to favor Hammer, Harris and Sam Rockwell, the latter of whom mysteriously missed the Conviction bounce that proved so beneficial to co-star Hilary Swank. Garfield was perhaps the most notable snub; Douglas is a sympathy-nod all the way (and looking a little better on those terms every day). Of course, as I remind you every week, none of this matters as long as Bale remains in the race, but still. There are at least four actors competing for two slots, split fairly evenly between studio muscle and indie spunk. Split the difference, I guess, and you'll probably wind up with Douglas and Hawkes. Who knows? Talk to me in a couple weeks.
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Comments
I enjoyed Black Swan and all and thought Portman was great. The rest of the cast was good in their roles but other than Portman there was no Oscar-worthy roles in it, especially not Kunis. She is a decent actress in the roles she is often cast in, but I refuse (somewhat defiantly for reasons I cannot explain) to accept her as an Oscar contender.
Great work as usual - This is my favourtie column out right now, any chance you include other catergories such as screenplay in the future? or other categories after the nominations are released possibly?
In the best picture race, there is a clear top 5 and it is in the correct order. I really hope to see Black Swan pull off a miracle and win, because that is truly fantastic - but I don't see it happening. I believe Toy Story 3 needs to be 6th because that is a lock, despite the opinions of some on animation pictures being nominated. Being 10th implies that if The Town manages to sneak a Best Picture nomination, that it will come at the expense of Toy Story 3 - which it won't. While The Town doesn't deserve a nomination (like The Blind Side), it may get one and it will be at the expense of a better picture if that happens. It seems that 127 Hours is at the 10th spot to me, based on talk - but it could be True Grit also. The Kids Are Alright and Winter's Bone could be in danger too because the Academy may choose to only nominate 1 indie film, who knows. But in all honesty, The Town should not get nominated and this discussion shouldn't happen. But the point is - I think Toy Story 3 should not be in 10th based on opinions other than my own.
Can't say much about the Directors race - We'll see what happens with DGA - But I still hold fast with my early predictions of Fincher, Hooper, Nolan, Aronofsky and Boyle with Coens and O. Russell looking in. It's a tough race this season (to get nominated).
The Top 4 for Best Actress are all but sewn up, and you have them in the right order too. The 5th spot has been inconsistent from Critics to Globes to SAGs so I still see it between Michelle Williams and Lesley Manville. I'd love to see Julianne Moore and Bening get nominated - but it just isn't a happening thing. Sad.
Leading Actor sees Firth, Franco and Eisenberg locked up. After that Bridges, Gosling and Duvall have two nominations while Mark Wahlberg has only gotten a Globes nom. I thought Wahlberg was in the wildnerness here until I saw him third here - I thought the last two spots were between Bridges, Gosling and Duvall - and I was favouring Bridges and Duvall personally.
And, you are completely right - NOMINATE JAVIER BARDEM. Please.
Supporting Actress should just have 6 nominations - because I have no idea who shouldn't get nominated. Jackie Weaver, Helena Bonham Carter and Melisa Leo have to be locks. That'd be my top 3. After that, Stienfield seems fairly assured minus the weird True Grit Globes snub. So, I guess it's between Kunis and Adams. I hope people don't dismiss Kunis because she has been mainly a comedy actress (That 70's Show and Forgetting Sarah Marshall). But this is too tough to call, and it is a shame that one of this group of six has to miss out.
Supporting only 3 actors were nominated by Critics, Globes and SAGs - Bale, Rush (as expected) and Renner. This now makes Renner are lock for an Oscar nomination in my mind - he should be third. After that we have Garfield (nominated by Critics and Globes), Ruffalo (nominated by Critics and SAGs) and Hawkes (nominated by SAGs). Douglas (nominated by Globes) and Rockell (nominated by Critics) surely have to be longshots - is there something I'm missing with Douglas being 4th here?
I'd then have Ruffalo 4th because SAGs means more than Garfield's globes nom - but Hawkes gets 5th. Hawkes should be 6th with Douglas and Rockwell longshots. Armie Hammer and Ed Harris are done.
Again, excellent column - I really enjoy it.
Wow! Thanks for the kind words and exhaustive analysis. Maybe I should turn this over to you!
To answer your question, though, I think it's likelier that we'll actually spin off a few category-specific Oscar Index features down the line for stuff like screenplay, documentary, foreign-language and animated feature in particular. That's the idea, anyway. Watch this space! And happy holidays!