Oscar Index: When SAG Things Happen to Good Actors
Three months down, one to go as Movieline's redoubtable Oscar Index tracks the cutthroat dynamics, strategies, tea-leaf analyses and total flukes leading up to the 83rd Academy Award nominations. This week's SAG Award nominations and continued critics prizes led to an blippy array of movements, with most occurring (perhaps obviously) in the increasingly competitive actors categories. Let's break it down.
[Click the graphs for larger images]
The Leading 10:
1. The Social Network
2. The King's Speech
3. The Fighter
4. Black Swan
5. Inception
6. True Grit
7. The Kids Are All Right
8. 127 Hours
9. Winter's Bone
10. Toy Story 3
Outsiders: Blue Valentine; The Town; Rabbit Hole; Shutter Island; The Ghost Writer
Notes: Another week, another devastating critics' awards run for The Social Network, a seemingly rhythmic series of accolades that came to drown out the sparse but spirited praise for The King's Speech. I mean, any time you have the London Critics Circle, Ed Koch, and Kevin Smith on your side, then you must know not all is lost. And how about this historical observation from Philadelphia Enquirer critic Stephen Rea: "[T]he last time -- the only other time, in fact -- that Firth and Rush appeared together onscreen was in 1998's Shakespeare in Love, the little Elizabethan romp that went on to win seven Academy Awards, including best picture. Don't be surprised if the Firth-Rush combo has a similar effect at the 2011 Oscars." So... yeah. It's early, it's Harvey, nothing is over yet.
As such, Sony is not taking its lead for granted. One pundit notes the studio's harried pre-holiday push -- not necessarily to counter Speech, either, but more likely to stave off the surge seen on behalf of The Fighter. The SAG Award nominations rang everyone's bell, but that solid medium-wide opening last weekend suggested that this may, finally, be the year of the crowd-pleaser at the Oscars. But as another observer asks (and persuasively answers), what is a crowd-pleaser in 2010? It's clearly a definition that "complex," critically acclaimed films like Social Network and Black Swan have come to influence while more conventionally mainstream fare (e.g. Speech, Fighter and possibly True Grit) slip ever more desperately into "X-factor" territory: "If anyone is asked what movie looks most likely to win right now, at this stage in the race, they would have to say, based on the evidence, that The Social Network is in the lead," writes Sasha Stone. "The only thing preventing them from doing so is their own stubbornness about the film itself: not a good enough reason."
The Leading 5:
1. David Fincher, The Social Network
2. Tom Hooper, The King's Speech
3. Christopher Nolan, Inception
4. Darren Aronofsky, Black Swan
5. David O. Russell, The Fighter
Outsiders: Joel and Ethan Coen, True Grit; Danny Boyle, 127 Hours; Lisa Cholodenko, The Kids Are All Right; Mike Leigh, Another Year
Notes: Did anything happen here? Alert me to anything I missed. I guess you could swap Aronofsky and Russell if you really wanted to, but the SAG nominations are essentially negligible in this race. But! We have a couple weeks to DGA nominations, at which point we'll see if the Coens and Boyle -- and possibly Cholodenko, though, I mean, well, no -- have enough peer-juice to overtake the bottom two.
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Comments
I enjoyed Black Swan and all and thought Portman was great. The rest of the cast was good in their roles but other than Portman there was no Oscar-worthy roles in it, especially not Kunis. She is a decent actress in the roles she is often cast in, but I refuse (somewhat defiantly for reasons I cannot explain) to accept her as an Oscar contender.
Great work as usual - This is my favourtie column out right now, any chance you include other catergories such as screenplay in the future? or other categories after the nominations are released possibly?
In the best picture race, there is a clear top 5 and it is in the correct order. I really hope to see Black Swan pull off a miracle and win, because that is truly fantastic - but I don't see it happening. I believe Toy Story 3 needs to be 6th because that is a lock, despite the opinions of some on animation pictures being nominated. Being 10th implies that if The Town manages to sneak a Best Picture nomination, that it will come at the expense of Toy Story 3 - which it won't. While The Town doesn't deserve a nomination (like The Blind Side), it may get one and it will be at the expense of a better picture if that happens. It seems that 127 Hours is at the 10th spot to me, based on talk - but it could be True Grit also. The Kids Are Alright and Winter's Bone could be in danger too because the Academy may choose to only nominate 1 indie film, who knows. But in all honesty, The Town should not get nominated and this discussion shouldn't happen. But the point is - I think Toy Story 3 should not be in 10th based on opinions other than my own.
Can't say much about the Directors race - We'll see what happens with DGA - But I still hold fast with my early predictions of Fincher, Hooper, Nolan, Aronofsky and Boyle with Coens and O. Russell looking in. It's a tough race this season (to get nominated).
The Top 4 for Best Actress are all but sewn up, and you have them in the right order too. The 5th spot has been inconsistent from Critics to Globes to SAGs so I still see it between Michelle Williams and Lesley Manville. I'd love to see Julianne Moore and Bening get nominated - but it just isn't a happening thing. Sad.
Leading Actor sees Firth, Franco and Eisenberg locked up. After that Bridges, Gosling and Duvall have two nominations while Mark Wahlberg has only gotten a Globes nom. I thought Wahlberg was in the wildnerness here until I saw him third here - I thought the last two spots were between Bridges, Gosling and Duvall - and I was favouring Bridges and Duvall personally.
And, you are completely right - NOMINATE JAVIER BARDEM. Please.
Supporting Actress should just have 6 nominations - because I have no idea who shouldn't get nominated. Jackie Weaver, Helena Bonham Carter and Melisa Leo have to be locks. That'd be my top 3. After that, Stienfield seems fairly assured minus the weird True Grit Globes snub. So, I guess it's between Kunis and Adams. I hope people don't dismiss Kunis because she has been mainly a comedy actress (That 70's Show and Forgetting Sarah Marshall). But this is too tough to call, and it is a shame that one of this group of six has to miss out.
Supporting only 3 actors were nominated by Critics, Globes and SAGs - Bale, Rush (as expected) and Renner. This now makes Renner are lock for an Oscar nomination in my mind - he should be third. After that we have Garfield (nominated by Critics and Globes), Ruffalo (nominated by Critics and SAGs) and Hawkes (nominated by SAGs). Douglas (nominated by Globes) and Rockell (nominated by Critics) surely have to be longshots - is there something I'm missing with Douglas being 4th here?
I'd then have Ruffalo 4th because SAGs means more than Garfield's globes nom - but Hawkes gets 5th. Hawkes should be 6th with Douglas and Rockwell longshots. Armie Hammer and Ed Harris are done.
Again, excellent column - I really enjoy it.
Wow! Thanks for the kind words and exhaustive analysis. Maybe I should turn this over to you!
To answer your question, though, I think it's likelier that we'll actually spin off a few category-specific Oscar Index features down the line for stuff like screenplay, documentary, foreign-language and animated feature in particular. That's the idea, anyway. Watch this space! And happy holidays!