Oscar Index: Now With 100% Less Burlesque!
The Leading 5:
1. Melissa Leo, The Fighter
2. Jacki Weaver, Animal Kingdom
3. Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit
4. Helena Bonham Carter, The King's Speech
5. Mila Kunis, Black Swan
Outsiders: Amy Adams, The Fighter; Dianne Wiest, Rabbit Hole; Barbara Hershey, Black Swan; Sissy Spacek, Get Low
Notes: Team Jacki experienced another surge this week as its hero found love with nominations for the Globes and Critics Choice Awards while winning the L.A. critics' prize outright. (San Francisco critics soon followed.) Leo fared a little better if only because, like Portman, she has the advantage of a movie in theaters -- not to mention an Academy presence from a previous nomination. Kunis leapt into the competition at last, bumping off Barbara Hershey, the roundly overlooked Dianne Wiest and the fits-and-starts showing of Amy Adams to mobilize for Oscar. And she's been practicing her best I-slept-through-the-nomination-announcement routine, which is always the truest sign of an awards-hungry contender just trying to play it cool. It's good to know she wants it; that'll go a long way with the Academy!
The Leading 5:
1. Christian Bale, The Fighter
2. Geoffrey Rush, The King's Speech
3. Andrew Garfield, The Social Network
4. Matt Damon, True Grit
5. Michael Douglas, Wall Street: Money Never Sleeps
Outsiders: Jeremy Renner, The Town; Armie Hammer, The Social Network; John Hawkes, Winter's Bone; Ed Harris, The Way Back; Sam Rockwell, Conviction
Notes: Between the Globes and Critics Choice notices, all that momentum Hawkes sought over the last few months appears to have swung Renner's way. (With the exception of the aforementioned San Francisco Film Critics, I guess -- congrats, John!) Douglas found a Globes bump this week as well and has the Hollywood sympathy leverage over Renner, but I still foresee the latter powering into the top five by next month. Garfield stands to be the category's only beneficiary of Social Network's largess to date; neither Hammer nor Justin Timberlake are making much of an impression of late. And as usual, Bale's the distant frontrunner anyway. So! Get on the Yogi Bear tip, JT! Let's hear some stories.
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Comments
I can't believe you didn't apologize for your outrageous oversight re: The Tourist in past weeks Oscar Index. How could you have missed such an obvious Oscar heavyweight? I mean, a bloated Mr. Depp + Ms. Jolie playing a spy for the 15th time = Oscar gold, doesn't it? Do the math man, clearly the HFPA has.
Oh, and don't even get me started on Burlesque...
This is fantastic.
But where is Mark Ruffalo (The Kids Are Alright) in your Supporting Actor race? He is far more talked about than Ed Harris or Armie Hammer.
Bale, Rush, Garfield appear to be locks. Damon and Ruffalo appear pretty solid and Renner seems to be getting more and more nominations as The Town also seems to be getting closer to the 'Blind Side' spot (deserved or otherwise). Hawkes and Rockwell would have to be the other major competitors.
Douglas, Hammer, Harris and Timberlake haven't got a shot.
So, I was wondering, with all the obvious research and accuracy involved - where is Mark Ruffalo in your Supporting Actor Race?
Arrgh, you're right about Ruffalo, I meant to add him in among the outsiders this week. Rockwell is toast, I held on to him as long as I could but he has nothing on Renner and Douglas at this point. I kind of feel the same way about Hawkes, who has earned some praise from pundits but is on pretty much none of the critics' or awards bodies' radar at the moment. He could come back, especially if he can attract some mention among SAG niminees. We'll know today!
But again, Ruffalo should absolutely be there. Consider this a correction!