Oscar Index: Now With 100% Less Burlesque!
The Leading 5:
1. Natalie Portman, Black Swan
2. Annette Bening, The Kids Are All Right
3. Jennifer Lawrence, Winter's Bone
4. Nicole Kidman, Rabbit Hole
5. Michelle Williams, Blue Valentine
Outsiders: Julianne Moore, The Kids Are All Right; Lesley Manville, Another Year; Tilda Swinton, I Am Love; Sally Hawkins, Made in Dagenham
Notes: I know, I know: Don't give too much weight to the precursors. Whatever. Let's be honest: The resistance of some critics' groups to bow to Natalie Portman reflects the kind of resistance you'll see all the way through the Academy's actors branch itself. Call it a generation war, call it loyalty, maybe even call it quality control if you must -- and don't think Portman's enemies aren't attempting to hold her Ashton Kutcher/Ivan Reitman sex comedy Friends With Benefits against her already. Portman's narrow advantage remains thanks not only to the assiduous campaigning, but also the fact that, well, her movie is only now in theaters. And this is a make-or-break weekend approaching: an 800-screen expansion that could bolster Searchlight's case and help nudge Portman irrevocably over the top.
The Leading 5:
1. Colin Firth, The King's Speech
2. Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network
3. James Franco, 127 Hours
4. Mark Wahlberg, The Fighter
5. Ryan Gosling, Blue Valentine
Outsiders: Jeff Bridges, True Grit; Javier Bardem, Biutiful; Robert Duvall, Get Low; Paul Giamatti, Barney's Version
Notes: What a difference a week makes. Franco withstood the Golden Globes' 127 Hours purge (right -- like the HFPA is going to turn away one of the Oscars' co-hosts) while Gosling and Wahlberg crept ahead on their films' growing profiles. True Grit was alarmingly absent this week among most voting bodies' nominees and winners, with the exception of the Critics Choice Awards, which has six slots for actors and actresses and where one might argue Bridges is, in fact, sixth out of those six slots. Bardem keeps coming and going; I expect him back by this time next week, but who knows if he or Roadside Attractions have what it takes to even make the appearance of competing for the win. Alas.
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Comments
I can't believe you didn't apologize for your outrageous oversight re: The Tourist in past weeks Oscar Index. How could you have missed such an obvious Oscar heavyweight? I mean, a bloated Mr. Depp + Ms. Jolie playing a spy for the 15th time = Oscar gold, doesn't it? Do the math man, clearly the HFPA has.
Oh, and don't even get me started on Burlesque...
This is fantastic.
But where is Mark Ruffalo (The Kids Are Alright) in your Supporting Actor race? He is far more talked about than Ed Harris or Armie Hammer.
Bale, Rush, Garfield appear to be locks. Damon and Ruffalo appear pretty solid and Renner seems to be getting more and more nominations as The Town also seems to be getting closer to the 'Blind Side' spot (deserved or otherwise). Hawkes and Rockwell would have to be the other major competitors.
Douglas, Hammer, Harris and Timberlake haven't got a shot.
So, I was wondering, with all the obvious research and accuracy involved - where is Mark Ruffalo in your Supporting Actor Race?
Arrgh, you're right about Ruffalo, I meant to add him in among the outsiders this week. Rockwell is toast, I held on to him as long as I could but he has nothing on Renner and Douglas at this point. I kind of feel the same way about Hawkes, who has earned some praise from pundits but is on pretty much none of the critics' or awards bodies' radar at the moment. He could come back, especially if he can attract some mention among SAG niminees. We'll know today!
But again, Ruffalo should absolutely be there. Consider this a correction!