Oscar Index: Social Network, King's Speech Commence Steel-Cage Death Match

The Leading 5:

1. Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit

2. Melissa Leo, The Fighter

3. Jacki Weaver, Animal Kingdom

4. Helena Bonham Carter, The King's Speech

5. Amy Adams, The Fighter

Outsiders: Dianne Wiest, Rabbit Hole; Barbara Hershey, Black Swan; Mila Kunis, Black Swan; Julianne Moore, The Kids Are All Right; Sissy Spacek, Get Low

Notes: Sorry, this category is not the one where I defer to impartial analysis of trends, developments, gossip and/or other Oscar-race implications. This is the one where I say hell YES did you see Jacki Weaver dunk from the free-throw line over Leo and Steinfeld? Screw the T-shirt; I want her NBR victory on a poster over my desk. Or maybe on one of those traditional motivational placards featuring her Animal Kingdom character above the word "CHARM" and her winning recent quote, "I can't believe I'm talking to Vanity Fair. I've got the Cher issue in front of me. Who knows, maybe one day I'll get to meet Graydon Carter!"

Meanwhile, Steinfeld leapfrogs Leo on the basis of continued, aforementioned True Grit goodwill; I hear it's borderline (if not outright) category fraud, but so what? Maybe Paramount can teach Focus a thing or two regarding its handling of Julianne Moore.

The Leading 5:

1. Christian Bale, The Fighter

2. Geoffrey Rush, The King's Speech

3. Matt Damon, True Grit

4. Armie Hammer, The Social Network

5. Andrew Garfield, The Social Network

Outsiders: Michael Douglas, Wall Street: Money Never Sleeps; Ed Harris, The Way Back; John Hawkes, Winter's Bone; Sam Rockwell, Conviction

Notes: Matt Damon's coming strong with enough momentum to overtake Rush by this time next week, while Hawkes may yet do the same to Harris and maybe even the gradually resurgent Douglas. And Bale will still win. It's an honor to be nominated, etc. etc.

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