Oscar Index: Does True Grit Have the Horses For Awards Season?

The Leading 5:

1. Melissa Leo, The Fighter

2. Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit

3. Helena Bonham Carter, The King's Speech

4. Jacki Weaver, Animal Kingdom

5. Amy Adams, The Fighter

Outsiders: Dianne Wiest, Rabbit Hole; Julianne Moore, The Kids Are All Right; Mila Kunis, Black Swan; Barbara Hershey, Black Swan; Sissy Spacek, Get Low; Miranda Richardson, Made in Dagenham

Notes: Jackiiiiii!!!!! Hold onnnnnn!!! For all the ad visibility of Weaver's campaign from Sony Classics, you can't really beat word of mouth -- at least not at this phase of the race. Scott Feinberg basically gave Steinfeld the Oscar in his initial reaction piece; others argue something like category fraud, noting that the teenager's debut is a lead-actress turn all the way. It hardly matters at this point. The Academy goes young every generation or so, which was good news for the likes of Tatum O'Neal (Paper Moon, 1973) and Anna Paquin (The Piano, 1993), not-so-good news for Abigail Breslin (Little Miss Sunshine, 2006), and probably as likely to factor into Steinfeld's odds as anything she leaves onscreen as Mattie Ross. I still get smacked with with a knowledgeable insider's Leo stick every week around this time, though, so we'll see.

And can I just say that unless Focus wants a Julianne Moore snub, it should probably get serious about a Supporting campaign? Again, wave your Indie Spirit hype and golden guru punditocracy hoohah scorecards in my face all you want, but is it not clear that there aren't enough slots in Actress to accommodate two losers from the same film? Just take your sad lot, Juli! You're not winning anyway (nothing against you, doll, but... come on), so just do the Hollywood thing, nudge helpless Jacki and/or Dianne Wiest into oncoming traffic, and rent some diamonds, already. And we'll see you in February!

The Leading 5:

1. Christian Bale, The Fighter

2. Geoffrey Rush, The King's Speech

3. Armie Hammer, The Social Network

4. Andrew Garfield, The Social Network

5. Matt Damon, True Grit

Outsiders: Michael Douglas, Wall Street: Money Never Sleeps; Ed Harris, The Way Back; John Hawkes, Winter's Bone; Sam Rockwell, Conviction; Paul Rudd, How Do You Know

Notes: Watch out for falling Rock... wells. Har. Sorry. The speculation contact-high is clearly getting to me. Anyway, Michael Douglas took the Hogwarts Express and a bit of well-placed blogger love back into the fringe of the spotlight -- where he promptly got in line behind Damon, whose Grit performance has folks chattering about his scene-stealing propensities as Rooster Cogburn's prairie-manhunt foil. That was enough to catapult Bardem into contention three years for the Coens' other Western awards-darling -- and that facial hair is about as undesirable as Anton Chigurh's Prince Valiant coiffure. And Damon's stumping for the film, so let's see how far that gets him.

All of which is to say: Does he have what it takes to be one of the guys to whom Bale pays tribute in his acceptance speech? Developing...

Pages: 1 2 3