Oscar Index: Does True Grit Have the Horses For Awards Season?
Another week, another prowl through the sweltering maze of hyperbole and hypothesis that is Oscar season. Put on Take off your thinking cap -- it's time to speculate with the best of them (informedly so, sort of, but still)! On to the Index!
[Click the graphs for larger images]
The Leading 10:
1. The King's Speech
2. The Social Network
3. Black Swan
4. True Grit
5. 127 Hours
6. The Fighter
7. Inception
8. The Kids Are All Right
9. [tie] Toy Story 3
9. [tie] Winter's Bone
Outsiders: Blue Valentine; Rabbit Hole; Another Year; How Do You Know
Notes: The majority of bytes expended on the short week in awards campaigning seemed to revolve around three films in particular. Of those, The Kids Are All Right and Winter's Bone sustained the steadiest buzz among followers of the Gotham Awards and Indie Spirit Awards -- two "competitions" that have exactly nothing to do with the race for the Academy Awards. In terms of visibility and hype, is it important that Kids and Bone (not to mention fellow frontrunners 127 Hours and Black Swan) are consistent? Of course. But if this recognition was worth a damn for any halfway serious Oscar contender, then you'd see The King's Speech and Blue Valentine (especially the latter) paying and playing along with the rest of the crowd. That smattering of Weinstein representation -- a few acting noms here, a directing nod there -- says all you really need to know about the Gothams and the Spirits as influencers.
Talk to me when the critics organizations around the country start flinging laurels at Kids and Bone (though early rumblings hint Bone and actress Jennifer Lawrence should fare respectably in New York and a few other contrary markets); then you'll know there's some upward mobility, not unlike the kind that propelled The Hurt Locker into legitimate heavyweight status in 2009. Kids Are All Right is a quintessential also-ran -- a fine film, successful and pleasing, which is to say: a Golden Globe-winner in the making. Let us cease this yammering about any greater future for it.
True Grit, on the other hand, is officially a comer in the race. Reactions to early screenings have been overwhelmingly positive, citing an old-school Western in the style of Unforgiven and awards-caliber performances by anyone onscreen long enough to qualify (read: pretty much anyone with a character poster). The King's Speech's staggering limited opening adds volumes to the long-term potential for that one, but pound-for-pound, if you had to pick one winner from the Oscar circuit this week, it would probably have to be True Grit. Meanwhile: Watch your back Social Network -- you don't want to be the next Up in the Air, do you?
The Leading 5:
1. Tom Hooper, The King's Speech
2. David Fincher, The Social Network
3. Darren Aronofsky, Black Swan
4. Christopher Nolan, Inception
5. Joel and Ethan Coen, True Grit
Outsiders: Danny Boyle, 127 Hours; David O. Russell, The Fighter; Mike Leigh, Another Year; Peter Weir, The Way Back; James Brooks, How Do You Know
Notes: Listen, I'll be honest: Nothing makes sense to me in this category. Nothing empirical jumps out; gut instinct tells me very little. It seems Hooper has to be considered the leader at this point for sheer visibility's sake and the perception that King's Speech is so commandingly in the Picture lead, but then here come the Coens with the early True Grit praise, and here comes Nolan with a new interview on the occasion of Inception's DVD release, and Danny Boyle won't be off the trail for long... and who even knows what kind of game Russell's got planned for the next six weeks? Is Fincher right to take a nomination for granted at this stage? Furthermore, for arguably the most competitive race in the entire field, no one else inside or outside the Academy seems to really be talking about it. So! Your guess is as good as mine. Let's hear it.
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