Oscar Index: King's Speech Will Be Heard; Jacki Weaver in Peril?

The Leading 5:

1. Melissa Leo, The Fighter

2. Jacki Weaver, Animal Kingdom

3. Helena Bonham Carter, The King's Speech

4. Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit

5. Dianne Wiest, Rabbit Hole

Outsiders: Julianne Moore, The Kids Are All Right; Amy Adams, The Fighter; Miranda Richardson, Made in Dagenham; Sissy Spacek, Get Low; Mila Kunis, Black Swan; Barbara Hershey, Black Swan

Notes: More King's Speech uptick here; Carter is essentially in as presumed, and you might even see her climb back to the top -- but probably not 'til Oscar night itself, symbolically launching The King's Speech table-running of the evening (except for Supporting Actor, which has Christian Bale so far ahead he's almost lapped once-upon-a-time also-ran Justin Timberlake). Amy Adams sneaks closer and closer to the Top 5 by virtue of Miranda Richardson's movie tripping over itself last weekend; the Academy loves Adams, and probably won't need much more excuse than that and her unsightly Fighter muffin-top to reward her selfless performance.

Requisite Jacki Weaver update: The Great One told Vulture's Lane Brown last week that while she has high hopes for Oscar consideration, a previous commitment in her native Australia might complicate the campaigning process:

I've got this play until December. And it's huge, because Cate Blanchett is in it, it's been sold out for months. And we don't have understudies. So I don't know if I can get to America until early January. And it would involve canceling several shows or having somebody replace me, and I don't know if they can.

Honey, Mo'Nique didn't show up for a damn thing last year and walked away with the Oscar. We'll consider this your doctor's note and see you in January. Onward! Team Jacki!

The Leading 5:

1. Christian Bale, The Fighter

2. Geoffrey Rush, The King's Speech

3. Armie Hammer, The Social Network

4. Andrew Garfield, The Social Network

5. Ed Harris, The Way Back

Outsiders: Sam Rockwell, Conviction; Michael Douglas, Wall Street: Money Never Sleeps; John Hawkes, Winter's Bone; Matt Damon, True Grit; Paul Rudd, How Do You Know

Notes: Yawn. The most we can really say for this category is that A) Ed Harris still has champions out there, B) John Hawkes has as much of a shot as anybody right now to sneak in at No. 5, and C) best wishes to Michael Douglas, but stop wasting our time, Fox. Was the .00045% bump in Wall Street 2 DVD traffic really worth that BS hype? What's next? Is Rampage Jackson next for The A-Team, coming Dec. 14 to Blu-ray and DVD? Vampires Suck for the Musical/Comedy category at the Globes? Let's focus, people!

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