Oscar Index: King's Speech Will Be Heard; Jacki Weaver in Peril?

The Leading 5:

1. Natalie Portman, Black Swan

2. Annette Bening, The Kids Are All Right

3. Jennifer Lawrence, Winter's Bone

4. Nicole Kidman, Rabbit Hole

5. Michelle Williams, Blue Valentine

Outsiders: Sally Hawkins, Made in Dagenham; Lesley Manville, Another Year; Tilda Swinton, I Am Love; Julianne Moore, The Kids Are All Right; Naomi Watts, _Fair Game

Notes: Pete Hammond has a fairly useful breakdown of this whole race over at Deadline, all of which comes down to, "It's Portman's to lose --- to Bening." Surprise! But the rest is interesting as well, making the case for Kidman in particular to make an end run into contention. Williams is conspicuous on the campaign front these days as well, while pundits keep making the case for Swinton to break through if Magnolia Pictures just spent a few bucks. (A hilarious commenter at Deadline disagrees: "Let me tell you something about Tilda Swindon's performance: IT SUCKED. I'm Italian and I can tell you she recited ABOMINABLY." Easy there, Mr. Weinstein!)

Apologies to Sally Hawkins and Lesley Manville, the former of whose film fizzled last weekend at the specialty box office, and the latter of whom seems to have been lost in the enduring "Actress-or-Supporting Actress?" debate. There's only enough attention-span for one contender in that conversation, and I think Julianne Moore already staked it. Also: Halle Berry, stop it.

The Leading 5:

1. Colin Firth, The King's Speech

2. James Franco, 127 Hours

3. Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network

4. Mark Wahlberg, The Fighter

5. Javier Bardem, Biutiful

Outsiders: Robert Duvall, Get Low; Jeff Bridges, True Grit; Ryan Gosling, Blue Valentine; Paul Giamatti, Barney's Version

Notes: Firth rides the Academy-screening wave over his closest competitor Franco, but this week's real shifts occur in the middle of the pack. Despite initial reports that Wahlberg would have a tough time holding his own in the Actor category, you really have to love Paramount's attempt to mainstream the hell out of him and The Fighter. Between Wahlberg's 60 Minutes profile and Christian Bale's Esquire cover, the last week of media coups have been among the splashiest of the season to date. This is the kind of presence the studio might want to consider for Bridges here pretty soon if they want to have a two-fer in the running; after all, Bardem will contend, and I don't necessarily buy the idea that Duvall is a lock for anything just because. Gosling's a comer, too. Should be fun (i.e. bruising) to watch.

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