Oscar Index: King's Speech Will Be Heard; Jacki Weaver in Peril?

Welcome back to another week of Movieline's Oscar Index, a comprehensive survey of hype, hubris and other standard-issue awards-season happenings. This week it's The King's Speech's turn in the spotlight -- but the competition isn't so far behind. Let's break it down.

[Click the graphs for larger images]

The Leading 10:

1. The King's Speech

2. The Social Network

3. Black Swan

4. 127 Hours

5. The Fighter

6. Inception

7. The Kids Are All Right

8. True Grit

9. Toy Story 3

10. Winter's Bone

Outsiders: Blue Valentine; Another Year; How Do You Know; Made in Dagenham

Notes: The King's Speech is finally arriving in theaters this weekend, but it's the film's recent Academy screening that seems to have set it apart for the audience that ultimately matters: Oscar voters

"The audience loved the film ... It played as well as anything I have seen this year," reported one Academy member who attended the screening at the 1,000-seat Samuel Goldwyn theater, which the member estimated was 85 percent full.

Another person in attendance said that the credits brought "lots of applause" for director Hooper and stars Colin Firth, Geoffrey Rush, Helena Bonham Carter, Guy Pearce and others, plus "solid applause for the writer, cinematographer, costumes, all down the line." And when the full cast scroll appeared onscreen, a second round of applause started up.

Of course, The Social Network had a relatively rousing Academy debut of its own, but thus far the conventional wisdom has the classic drama holding a little more weight against the contemporary drama. This can (and probably will) change in the weeks and months ahead, but Sony would likely acknowledge this is the King's time: Let it open, let it peak, and let's see where we are in mid-December as The Fighter and True Grit break up the conversation. That's fair.

Focus Features, meanwhile, senses it's now or never for its Kids Are All Right push; the crowd-pleasing summer release still has the little issue of where to campaign Annette Bening and Julianne Moore, but just keeping it visible for Picture right now seems to be priority one. Some skeptics dismiss it, but according to Pete Hammond, the effort is reaping at least a few rewards in the Academy's largest branch: "[A] turn-away crowd of actors voting for the SAG award nominations this year [...] turned the post-screening session into a rollicking seminar on the art of acting," he wrote.

Finally what of Toy Story 3, to which Disney has so insistently pledged not only a Best Picture nomination, but a win? Most pundits get it, even as they brush it off. Take Sasha Stone:

Two things would happen if the film managed to pull off a win - it would immediately degrade the film itself, and it may very well make a mockery of the proceedings. The reason for this isn't that Toy Story 3 isn't good. It's that they would be saying there weren't any worthy live action films. And let's face it, that is just plainly untrue. So, I don't see a scenario that has Toy Story 3 winning. I can't even see it being many voters' number 1 film of the year.

Pretty much, yeah.

The Leading 5:

1. David Fincher, The Social Network

2. Tom Hooper, The King's Speech

3. Darren Aronofsky, Black Swan

4. Danny Boyle, 127 Hours

5. Christopher Nolan, Inception

Outsiders: David O. Russell, The Fighter; Joel and Ethan Coen, True Grit; Mike Leigh, Another Year; Peter Weir, The Way Back; James Brooks, How Do You Know

Notes: The Social Network/King's Speech debate in Picture -- not to mention Danny Boyle's hibernation-by-design after 127 Hours' superb (if mildly overexposed) run -- drags each film's director back into the Top 2 of their own category. Aronofsky didn't hurt his case with Natalie Portman running off with Best Actress and his own avowal not to compromise on Wolverine -- a shot over the bow of any directors branch haters who want to discount him for taking a paycheck flick. He's still going to have to fight Russell and the Coens (and possibly Peter Weir, who continues to lurk very quietly but very potently on the outside) for final consideration, but at least he's making his case. He wants it. And wanting it never hurts.

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