Oscar Index: Black Swan Natalie Portman Breaks Away From the Flock
Another week, another turbulent week in the life of Movieline's Oscar Index. Some soared, others, not so much. And others still just held on for dear life and made the whole race kind of stagnant, to be honest. What do you say we shake it up? Here's the latest...
[Click the graphs for larger images]
The Leading 10:
1. The King's Speech
2. The Social Network
3. [tie] 127 Hours
3. [tie] Black Swan
5. The Fighter
6. Inception
7. True Grit
8. Toy Story 3
9. The Kids Are All Right
10. Winter's Bone
Outsiders: Another Year; Blue Valentine; Made in Dagenham; How Do You Know;
Notes: Most observers agree The King's Speech continues to carry the day in Best Picture, with a renewed push from Team Social Network nudging it back to a close second. Notes Scott Feinberg: "The Social Network has performed extremely well at the box-office, registered strongly with moviegoers (and Oscar voters) in all demographics, and become an enduring part of our cultural discussion to an extent that I don't believe The King's Speech can match." Steve Pond's right there with him. But it doesn't have the fainty, fulsome praise accompanying Fox Searchlight's darlings 127 Hours and Black Swan, which are neck-and-neck with the former going wide this weekend and the latter earning raves at last week's Hollywood coming-out party.
The Fighter continued its slow march into the Top 5, surpassing Inception in held-over hype if nothing else. Toy Story 3's reaffirmed position in the Animated Feature race is less relevant here than Disney chief Rich Ross actually saying things like: "We're going for the Best Picture win. We wanted to have the best movie, and the reviews have clearly said that, and it's the number one box office hit of the year, so I'm not sure why we would not go for it all." Cute. The 10th slot in the race is admittedly up for grabs, but I think we can safely disqualify Love and Other Drugs, unless a redband trailer suddenly delivers newfound cachet to one's awards-season hopes.
The Leading 5:
1. Danny Boyle, 127 Hours
2. David Fincher, The Social Network
3. Tom Hooper, The King's Speech
4. Darren Aronofsky, Black Swan
5. Christopher Nolan, Inception
Outsiders: David O. Russell, The Fighter; Joel and Ethan Coen, True Grit; Mike Leigh, Another Year; James Brooks, How Do You Know; Peter Weir, The Way Back
Notes: Welcome back, Darren Aronofsky! One triumphant premiere and one surefire Best Actress front-runner later, you are back in business. I would nudge you past that shameless poster-thwacker Tom Hooper, but I don't think you're quite in the Top-3 league yet -- particularly Fincher, for whom the new mantra appears to be, "He's due." In a field like this, that'll go a longer way than you probably think at first: Boyle's already won it, Hooper's never competed, Nolan's not earned it, Russell wants it but has a past, and the Coens have won it but don't seem to care, anyway. And you, Darren, are reportedly "allergic to sentiment and commercial sensibilities." But it's a long season! You can learn. Kiss some babies or something.
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Comments
Fincher is totally due. He was completely snubbed on _Zodiac_ (the movie he should have won for), then given the sympathy nom for _Benjamin Button_ to try to make up for _Zodiac_ even though we all knew he wasn't going to win for _Button_. Now he's back with another great film so this has to be his time dammit!
I've only seen the trailer for" True Grit", but I'm already putting my money on Hailee Steinfeld...she's due.
i can't believe douglas is in the running solely based on sentimentality. that movies was astonishingly bad. he was good, but nothing award-worthy.
I just cannot get into these races yet, probably due to nobody turning in the obligatory challenged role. With no one going "full retard" I have no bile to produce, and therefore little interest.
Halle Berry is said to come close! Alas, she is on the outside of the outside this year. But there's plenty of time to change that!
I'm really stunned at the lack of support that Animal Kingdom is getting outside of Jacki Weaver, because it runs rings around most of the competition. Where's the love for Ben Mendlesohn for best actor, easily the best performance of the year. And what aboutJustin Timberlake's performance in TSN? He kicks Armie Hammer in the crotch performancewise. And Jeremy Renner's awesome performance in "The Town" has been left completely in the dust...
This year's best performances are being totally screwed...as usual....:-)
I'm hoping Portman doesn't win. Her performance in Black Swan may be good but she's not near as consistent as an actress as Bening. In fact I'd say she hasn't impressed me with a performance since she was a young teen.
Hmm, another year with no Asians or Black nominees, but it does look like another year for British directors, seriously.
I would love it if Dianne Weist got the nomination, she has been so consistently good for so many years, even in films like Edward Scissorhands, or ensemble movies like Synechdoche New York.
I haven't seen Black Swan yet, though I'm hoping Natalie Portman at least gets nominated. And Michelle Williams, they're both so talented.
And what about Noomi Rapace? Isn't she under consideration for Best Actress for the Swedish version of "The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo"? You don't even list her as one of the also-rans! The movie opened in the U.S. in early 2010, so it should be eligible for Oscars.
I'm still surprised that Bill Murray isn't getting any love for 'Get Low.' If there was ever a time to give him a 'he's due' award. It's for this role.
what about last year's Precious, Morgan Freeman?
If you want to talk about visible minorities, what about Slumdog Millionaire?
And from previous years, how about Jamie Foxx and Forest Whitaker taking away some of the most treasured prizes of their respective years?
If anything the Academy awards have become a multicultural showpiece for the film industry in recent years. Best Foreign Films are now more discussed than ever and are publicized all the more because of it.
Ok I understand why DiCaprio might not be in consideration in the best actor race, but come on! At least Scorsese should get a nom! I absolutely loved that movie, it has a lot of memorable moments in cinema! I know there are mixed feelings about this, but I thought the cinematography and editing was fantastic, Kingsley was hypnotic, Michelle Williams was twisted in the way Marion Cotillard was in Inception(which deserves also some kind of recognition) and Patricia Clarkson's performance was the haunting one of the movie for me, DiCaprio was very good as always(though i don't think it's his best like other say, just very memorable); the music was also abs. haunting as well(should def. be nominated, maybe even win).; the screenplay was a pretty good contribution to it too. I know that people have mixed feelings and can't see how good it was, but believe me, in 5-10 years it will be looked upon as a masterpiece (that's how i look at it now). Plus, if it doesn't get nominated it wouldn't make sense, because it was a trippy movie, old school type with Scorsese helming and out of all his movies, this is the one which did best. It's going to be a pretty big upset if it doesn't get a few noms. I'm very aware that it doesn't stand a chance of winning but it desreves to be nominated at the important categories. The Way Back is another movie that I think should be much more considered, and it will probably catch up with the Oscar buzz soon, i'm sure .
I wanna correct myself. Shutter Island is the one out of all Scorsese's movies that did best at the box-office. And i understand that it counts in a way at the Academy Awards.
I wanna correct myself. Shutter Island did best at the box-office out of all of Scorsese's previous films.As far as i know the Academy counts that in some way too. I'll keep my fingers crossed for him and his movies in february.
That is a ridiculous comment. The award is for a performance in one movie, not an actor's overall career. Who cares what Portma or Bening did before, it is about the performances now.
Why aren't people strong about Inception?
It is the best movie so far!
(If we consider the pains taken by the director)
and Nolan also deserves sympathy coz he was totally ignored for The Dark Knight!
😐
You don't need to tell me about Animal Kingdom... couldn't agree more. Mendelsohn is extraordinary. They just couldn't really get enough traction with audiences in August; it's really too bad.
I didn't really like Justin Timberlake when he was within the band.. But once he branched out on his own he became extra likable.. And I liked him in that film Alphadog!