Oscar Index: Watch Out, Here Comes The Fighter

The Leading 5:

1. Melissa Leo, The Fighter

2. Jacki Weaver, Animal Kingdom

3. Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit

4. Dianne Wiest, Rabbit Hole

5. Helena Bonham Carter, The King's Speech

Outsiders: Julianne Moore, The Kids Are All Right; Miranda Richardson, Made in Dagenham; Amy Adams, The Fighter; Sissy Spacek, Get Low; Mila Kunis, Black Swan; Barbara Hershey, Black Swan

Notes: Good news for Jacki Weaver fans! Melissa Leo will not necessarily be the lock once presumed for her role as Wahlberg and Christian Bale's mother/manager in The Fighter. One viewer called her Oscar hype "embarrassing," and the context in which she comes up in Jeff Sneider's epic review at The Wrap is... not quite encouraging. Well, at least not for Leo. But her co-star? Sure: "While Leo will be the performance that women leave talking about, Adams' continually strong work can't be denied. I really don't think that many actresses could get as much out of that role as she did."

Bad news for Jacki Weaver fans! Leo's still got Paramount behind her, Amy Adams is coming hard on the outside, and check out Tom O'Neil's outrageous piece ordering Julianne Moore and Focus Features to just take Supporting and let everyone get on with their lives already. Ten-hut!

I'm not even going to say "please." Let's dispense with niceties and make this point as firmly as possible. Julianne Moore: If you want to do the right thing this Oscar season for The Kids Are All Right, your costar Annette Bening and yourself, you will immediately quit the Best Actress race and campaign in Supporting.

You and Bening have the best shots at winning Oscars as a result. Stay in the lead race and you may ruin both of your hopes.

Frankly, you have no realistic chance of winning the lead actress contest. According to the collective opinions of the 11 experts polled by Gold Derby as well as our editors, you won't even be nominated.

LOLZ. This guy! And you know what? He'll take credit when Moore does go to Supporting, as if that wasn't where she was headed all along. Whatever. It takes all kinds. Hey Tom, do a real service: Tell everyone but Weaver to quit the race. I'll buy you a new tacky shirt! Deal?

The Leading 5:

1. Christian Bale, The Fighter

2. Geoffrey Rush, The King's Speech

3. Armie Hammer, The Social Network

4. Michael Douglas, Wall Street: Money Never Sleeps

5. Andrew Garfield, The Social Network

Outsiders: Sam Rockwell, Conviction; Ed Harris, The Way Back; John Hawkes, Winter's Bone; Matt Damon, True Grit; Paul Rudd, How Do You Know

Notes: It's over. @reverseDERF said so.

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