Oscar Index: Watch Out, Here Comes The Fighter

The Leading 5:

1. Natalie Portman, Black Swan

2. Annette Bening, The Kids Are All Right

3. Jennifer Lawrence, Winter's Bone

4. Nicole Kidman, Rabbit Hole

5. Sally Hawkins, Made in Dagenham

Outsiders: Julianne Moore, The Kids Are All Right; Anne Hathaway, Love and Other Drugs; Lesley Manville, Another Year; Michelle Williams, Blue Valentine; Naomi Watts, Fair Game

Notes: "I haven't seen Natalie Portman in Black Swan yet," wrote Sasha Stone this week at Awards Daily...

But from what I can tell, I think we are really and truly looking at Bening's win, finally. The Oscar race for Best Actor or Actress is usually not about one singular performance, although sometimes it is. Most of the time, the statue rewards not just a body of work, but the moment the performer takes a giant step forward. In Bening's case, she turns in a much more toned down, less showy performance. And I think she's got the Oscar sewn up.

That is the 2010 race in a nutshell: Bening rules, then you see Black Swan and you're like, "Oh. Oh." And then Roadside Attractions spends another pot of money on ads for Jennifer Lawrence. Rinse, repeat. Whoever times their epiphanies just right for the final vote takes the Oscar home. Bening's co-star Moore, on the other hand, is on her way to Supporting Actress eventually (see below); I figure Manville and/or Williams will be back to the bubble by this time next week.

The Leading 5:

1. James Franco, 127 Hours

2. Colin Firth, The King's Speech

3. Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network

4. Javier Bardem, Biutiful

5. Robert Duvall, Get Low

Outsiders: Mark Wahlberg, The Fighter Jeff Bridges, True Grit; Ryan Gosling, Blue Valentine; Paul Giamatti, Barney's Version

Notes: Not much changing at the top of the Index, though don't confuse that with not much happening: Franco has upwards of 20 fainted moviegoers in his wake (the ones who make it out of 127 Hours without incident are borderline speechless), but Firth has literally every Oscar pundit at places like Gurus O'Gold in his pocket, and they count for plenty. I wouldn't be surprised to see a right arm actually cut off at the Weinstein Company over this race, probably an intern's, maybe the weekend receptionist's if the race is close enough.

Wahlberg, though... I dunno. I thought about the post AFI Fest bump, but then I read lines like, "Wahlberg's dull-eyed, sweet receptivity -- while combined with brute strength -- may hurt his awards chances" and "Best Actor is, to be perfectly honest going to be difficult for Wahlberg." Paired with continued prognostication about Robert Duvall breaking through (despite a movie with zero buzz), and my absolute certainty that Bardem is a lock for a nomination once Biutiful gets going, I'll err on the side of caution. Or, er, whatever you want to call it. Oscar Index! Caution! Danger! Ugh, is it over yet? All right, moving on...

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