Oscar Index: Watch Out, Here Comes The Fighter

Another bit of late turbulence this week as Movieline's Oscar Index came in to land, starting with more affected 127 Hours viewers and finally some bankable word on the prospects for The Fighter. To wit: Christian Bale, clean your tux and clear your schedule. You will be busy.

[Click the graphs for larger images]

The Leading 10:

1. The King's Speech

2. 127 Hours

3. The Social Network

4. Inception

5. Black Swan

6. The Fighter

7. True Grit

8. Toy Story 3

9. The Kids Are All Right

10. Winter's Bone

Outsiders: Another Year; Blue Valentine; Made in Dagenham; How Do You Know; Love and Other Drugs; For Colored Girls

Notes: Hey, finally, some movement on The Fighter! Tuesday's night's world premiere at AFI Fest met with mostly strong acclaim, with a few hecklers chiming in from the gallery and plenty of Picture buzz flooding the Web afterward. Even Anne Thompson, who'd all but sworn that neither The Fighter nor bad-boy director David O. Russell would get pass the Academy smell-test however good they were, today wrote, "The buzz on the street about David O. Russell's The Fighter -- the boxing movie is a rousing crowd-pleaser, stolen by Christian Bale -- was correct. [...] The $25-million '90s period movie is more than a quest for a boxing title." (Wahlberg didn't fare as well, but more on that in a bit.)

Meanwhile -- and maybe this is burying the lede, but I swear without The Fighter update this feature would have been, like, 50 words this week -- look who's tumbled from the top spot! I don't know how long The King's Speech and 127 Hours can sustain their momentum; probably as long as people keep fainting at the latter and pundits keep swearing by the latter. What kind of bump did Social Network get this week? A nice write-up in the New York Review of Books? I can't wait to see what Sony has planned to bounce back, even as it faces rolling out How Do You Know next month as well.

The Leading 5:

1. Danny Boyle, 127 Hours

2. Tom Hooper, The King's Speech

3. Christopher Nolan, Inception

4. David Fincher, The Social Network

5. Joel and Ethan Coen, True Grit

Outsiders: David O. Russell, The Fighter; Darren Aronofsky, Black Swan; Mike Leigh, Another Year; James Brooks, How Do You Know; Peter Weir, The Way Back

Notes: This remains the most brutal of all six major categories, and you can tell Russell desperately wants to break in. "It took me such a long time to get the movie made that if you don't like the movie, I'll do two hours of hard labor," he said before Tuesday's premiere. "I did it to get the movie made and I will do it for anyone who doesn't like it." Humble! Servile! Maybe too humble and servile, though? Anyway, he'll beat the Coens in that department any year, but is at the disadvantage of having to run behind the True Grit filmmakers at their own studio. That'll be interesting to watch.

The top four are set as far as I'm concerned, with the sweetheart Boyle ("Ah, I see you fainted there. You all right, love?" Or something) holding on while Hooper nudged past Fincher on the strength of his "train smash" poster takedown. He's playing the game, and he's playing to win. Fincher, in the meantime, is fending off slaps from entitled Swedish directors who apparently want their franchise legacies back. Stay thirsty, my friend.

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