Inception, Toy Story 3 Jump in Latest Oscar Index
The Leading 5:
1. Melissa Leo, The Fighter
2. Jacki Weaver, Animal Kingdom
3. Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit
4. Dianne Wiest, Rabbit Hole
5. Helena Bonham Carter, The King's Speech
Outsiders: Miranda Richardson, Made in Dagenham; Sissy Spacek, Get Low; Amy Adams, The Fighter; Mila Kunis, Black Swan; Barbara Hershey, Black Swan
Notes: I have a very bad feeling about Carter against a strengthening gang of competitors, none more so than the great, great Jacki Weaver. Sony Classics will get its Animal Kingdom villainess her nomination; the cognoscenti is awake to the potential (not least of all as SPC begins allocating cash for phase-one awards ads), and as Steve Pond says in cataloging the craziness he craves from this season, "it's not too much" to consider Weaver making the Leading 5. But this category is likely full of slow burns like that; check out Amy Adams making the climb into contention based on early word over the transom from folks who've seen The Fighter (they still maintain Bale and Leo are the frontrunners, but hey). Dianne Wiest is another, matching Kidman note for note as a grieving mother of a grieving mother. Depending on how Hershey fares next month -- and how amenable the Academy is to Darren Aronofsky's psychodrama -- this might be a whole category of mothers. And Hailee Steinfeld, of course, who, in the vein of Jennifer Lawrence before her, may be too young to win anyway. Anyway, Team Jacki.
The Leading 5:
1. Christian Bale, The Fighter
2. Geoffrey Rush, The King's Speech
3. Michael Douglas, Wall Street: Money Never Sleeps
4. Armie Hammer, The Social Network
5. Andrew Garfield, The Social Network
Outsiders: Ed Harris, The Way Back; Sam Rockwell, Conviction; Matt Damon, True Grit; John Hawkes, Winter's Bone; Paul Rudd, How Do You Know
Notes: Yawn. I keep hearing that Sam Rockwell is coming back, and as much as I'd love to believe it, let's face it: Conviction is simply dead in the water. The biggest buzz The Way Back had all week was some blogger or other bitching that the film was screening in L.A. and not New York, thus keeping him from an early look. Andrew Garfield's fangirls have apparently taken over his campaign from Sony while Hammer's profile nudges higher each week. The Winter's Bone contingent now has John Hawkes on the radar, hoping to take either Garfield or Douglas's spot among nominees. I doubt it, but I can't deny it's nice to see someone who actually wants it right about now.
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Comments
I'm not sure I agree with your Best Actor prediction. I know it's early days, but I'd put money on Firth winning. He probably deserved the win last year, and he has the advantage of age and being "due" (ironically the reason Bridges beat him last year). Franco may have put in a better performance, but he's young. A lot of voters will think that a nomination is enough for now.
I love your love for Jacki, Stu.
And yeah, I think this is Firth's to lose. Although the way the Academy has been skewing younger and younger each year, I wouldn't be at all surprised with a Franco win.
i don't think the academy feels like it owes firth anything. before last the only mainstream movie they would know him from was bridget jones. no one here cares about his ancient pride and prejudice turn.
I'm guessing by your "ancient" insult that Firth has been acting longer than you've been alive then?
i wish. i guess that's the only other time i can remember firth getting major praise beyond A single man. i'm not sure he's viewed as having a treasure-trove of overlooked performances.
You're right. Jamie Foxx is a prime example of that, I guess?
jamie foxx was an anomaly that year. it seemed like he was going to blow up between ray and collateral (granted he didnt). i like colin firth more but no one thinks he's about to become the next big thing. Maybe that's a good thing b/c academy-award winner jamie foxx followed up that year with Stealth.
also i was responding to third lion's comment that the academy might think firth is 'due.' so foxx doesn't really factor in.
Well, I was responding to both of you. I've always found this idea of being "due" rather daft; when you gather almost 6000 votes, it's all the more so. There is no "due". For every apparently "due" winner, I can guarantee I can give you a list of newbies that lucked into the award.
I think all this "he's due" and "it's his to lose" business will undue Firth's sure thing. I don't think there is *that* much stored up affection for Colin Firth. He's not Jeff Bridges last year (in that Bridges had more than one nomination and several notable performances and YEARS and YEARS of good/solid work and affection from his peers).
I still think it is possible for Franco to Adrien Brody that Best Actor Oscar away from Firth. And while The King's Speech is a more beloved than Gangs of New York was in it's day, Firth is not nearly as beloved as Daniel Day Lewis was then and Brody still managed to upset and win an Oscar people had earmarked for DDL from the start of that season. Franco could be our Best Actor winner come February.