Inception, Toy Story 3 Jump in Latest Oscar Index
The Leading 5:
1. Natalie Portman, Black Swan
2. Jennifer Lawrence, Winter's Bone
3. Annette Bening, The Kids Are All Right
4. Nicole Kidman, Rabbit Hole
5. Julianne Moore, The Kids Are All Right
Outsiders: Sally Hawkins, Made in Dagenham; Anne Hathaway, Love and Other Drugs; Lesley Manville, Another Year; Michelle Williams, Blue Valentine; Naomi Watts, Fair Game
Notes: Another week, another J-Law bump -- this despite Oscarphile genius Nathaniel Rogers' inference (I think?) that the 20-year-old actress may be too young to win Actress. (Marlee Matlin currently holds the record for youngest winner at age 21; only Keisha Castle-Hughes at 13 and Keira Knightley and Ellen Page at 20 were younger nominees.) Sasha Stone disagreed: "My reasoning for this is as follows: hers is the only truly selfless and heroic contender in the pack. [...] I don't think Lawrence is in the same position that Carey Mulligan was last year because Mulligan, though lovable indeed, was not caring for her younger siblings, her sick mother, trying to save their home -- all the while delivering a spectacular performance. She's a big threat." This is going to be Page vs. Cotillard all over again -- except of Lawrence and Portman, I don't know which is which. Help!
Also: The Kidman bandwagon is acquiring some speed (she entirely owns the new poster, for what that's worth, which isn't a lot except that it's Nicole Kidman's Movie And Don't You Forget It), and Manville is gonna break through soon, I know it. Hathaway's days are numbered.
The Leading 5:
1. James Franco, 127 Hours
2. Colin Firth, The King's Speech
3. Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network
4. Javier Bardem, Biutiful
5. Mark Wahlberg, The Fighter
Outsiders: Jeff Bridges, True Grit; Robert Duvall, Get Low; Ryan Gosling, Blue Valentine; Paul Giamatti, Barney's Version
Notes: Uh, this category is still happening? As noted, Firth basked in a little bit of awards afterglow this week while Franco's one-man show became a two-hander on the promo circuit. There is a very real possibility that Franco could run away with this award by the end of this month; the word-of-mouth potential is too strong, the subject matter too substantial, the class too great, the impact too unshakable to counteract. In the battle of true story vs. true story, I mean, this is 2010. You take the guy who hacked off his own arm and can smile about it. I'm just saying. I'm still hopeful for Bardem, of course, but you take the guy who hacked off his own arm.
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Comments
I'm not sure I agree with your Best Actor prediction. I know it's early days, but I'd put money on Firth winning. He probably deserved the win last year, and he has the advantage of age and being "due" (ironically the reason Bridges beat him last year). Franco may have put in a better performance, but he's young. A lot of voters will think that a nomination is enough for now.
I love your love for Jacki, Stu.
And yeah, I think this is Firth's to lose. Although the way the Academy has been skewing younger and younger each year, I wouldn't be at all surprised with a Franco win.
i don't think the academy feels like it owes firth anything. before last the only mainstream movie they would know him from was bridget jones. no one here cares about his ancient pride and prejudice turn.
I'm guessing by your "ancient" insult that Firth has been acting longer than you've been alive then?
i wish. i guess that's the only other time i can remember firth getting major praise beyond A single man. i'm not sure he's viewed as having a treasure-trove of overlooked performances.
You're right. Jamie Foxx is a prime example of that, I guess?
jamie foxx was an anomaly that year. it seemed like he was going to blow up between ray and collateral (granted he didnt). i like colin firth more but no one thinks he's about to become the next big thing. Maybe that's a good thing b/c academy-award winner jamie foxx followed up that year with Stealth.
also i was responding to third lion's comment that the academy might think firth is 'due.' so foxx doesn't really factor in.
Well, I was responding to both of you. I've always found this idea of being "due" rather daft; when you gather almost 6000 votes, it's all the more so. There is no "due". For every apparently "due" winner, I can guarantee I can give you a list of newbies that lucked into the award.
I think all this "he's due" and "it's his to lose" business will undue Firth's sure thing. I don't think there is *that* much stored up affection for Colin Firth. He's not Jeff Bridges last year (in that Bridges had more than one nomination and several notable performances and YEARS and YEARS of good/solid work and affection from his peers).
I still think it is possible for Franco to Adrien Brody that Best Actor Oscar away from Firth. And while The King's Speech is a more beloved than Gangs of New York was in it's day, Firth is not nearly as beloved as Daniel Day Lewis was then and Brody still managed to upset and win an Oscar people had earmarked for DDL from the start of that season. Franco could be our Best Actor winner come February.